Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 8:05 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Minnesota Vikings 66%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 34%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Minnesota Vikings Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Kyler Murray pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Carson Wentz pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
76% Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Minnesota Vikings wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Minnesota Vikings wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Minnesota Vikings wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Minnesota Vikings wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat54 JD Jalon Daniels pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
71% Kyler Murray pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Carson Wentz pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Justin Jefferson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jordan Mason rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jordan Addison receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Emeka Egbuka receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Godwin Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under T.J. Hockenson receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Aaron Jones rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Cade Otton receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bucky Irving rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Carson Wentz pass yds 184.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Justin Jefferson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Bucky Irving 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Emeka Egbuka 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over T.J. Hockenson 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over T.J. Hockenson 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Bucky Irving 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Emeka Egbuka 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Bucky Irving rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Carson Wentz pass yds 184.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Justin Jefferson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Cade Otton receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Aaron Jones rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Emeka Egbuka receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Godwin Jr. receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over T.J. Hockenson receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Mason rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jordan Addison receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jauan Jennings 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Justin Jefferson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jordan Mason 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Carson Wentz pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Bucky Irving 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emeka Egbuka 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kenny Gainwell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalon Daniels pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Kyler Murray pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jordan Addison 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Demond Claiborne 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Aaron Jones 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ted Hurst III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Justin Jefferson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DeeJay Dallas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tez Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD T.J. Hockenson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Myles Price 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tai Felton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Payne Durham 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Godwin Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalon Daniels 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Carson Wentz 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyler Murray 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Minnesota Vikings Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 23/17 Hit
66% Both total runs 40.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 40.5 Under· Totals Under Tampa Bay Buccaneers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 16/24 Miss
34% Team stats6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Vikings team runs 21.5 Over· Team Points Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Minnesota Vikings Team pass yds 144.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Minnesota Vikings Team rush yds 89.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team rush yds 84.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
