New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — Game center Final NFL
Oct 4 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New England Patriots 38%
Buffalo Bills 62%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head New England Patriots Buffalo Bills
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keon Coleman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New England Patriots within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 4.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
78% New England Patriots within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 New England Patriots within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ New England Patriots within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Buffalo Bills wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Buffalo Bills wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat64 TD Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
71% Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keon Coleman receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Moore receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under James Cook rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Romeo Doubs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Hunter Henry receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Allen rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mack Hollins receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Josh Allen pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under James Cook 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drake Maye pass yds 244.5 Under· Pass Yds Under TreVeyon Henderson rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Hunter Henry 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Drake Maye pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Mack Hollins 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Khalil Shakir 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Khalil Shakir 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mack Hollins 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Drake Maye pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Drake Maye pass yds 244.5 Over· Pass Yds Over TreVeyon Henderson rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Hunter Henry 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Josh Allen pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Josh Allen rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mack Hollins receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TreVeyon Henderson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Rhamondre Stevenson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD James Cook rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Romeo Doubs receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Hunter Henry receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DJ Moore receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Keon Coleman receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Romeo Doubs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DJ Moore 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dalton Kincaid 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Frank Gore Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Lan Larison 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Reggie Gilliam 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keon Coleman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Hunter Henry 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Efton Chism III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Corey Kiner 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dawson Knox 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Eli Raridon 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ty Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jackson Hawes 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Palmer 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Khalil Shakir 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drake Maye 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyle Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tommy DeVito 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ray Davis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DeMario Douglas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mack Hollins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Buffalo Bills Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 26/30 Miss
62% Both total runs 43.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 43.5 Under· Totals Under New England Patriots Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 29/27 Hit
38% Team stats6 Buffalo Bills team runs 26.5 Over· Team Points New England Patriots team runs 17.5 Over· Team Points New England Patriots Team pass yds 249.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Buffalo Bills Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Buffalo Bills Team rush yds 124.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New England Patriots Team rush yds 119.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
