New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills — Game center Scheduled NFL
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model New England Patriots 31%
Buffalo Bills 69%
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head New England Patriots Buffalo Bills
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ty Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New England Patriots within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
72% New England Patriots within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ New England Patriots within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ New England Patriots within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Buffalo Bills wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Buffalo Bills wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat60 TD Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
71% Josh Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ty Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DJ Moore receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Romeo Doubs receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under TreVeyon Henderson rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mack Hollins receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Mack Hollins 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Ty Johnson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Drake Maye pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Josh Allen rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under James Cook rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Josh Allen pass yds 209.5 Under· Pass Yds Under James Cook 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drake Maye pass yds 234.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Josh Allen pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Drake Maye pass yds 234.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Josh Allen pass yds 209.5 Over· Pass Yds Over James Cook rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over TreVeyon Henderson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Allen rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dalton Kincaid 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Ty Johnson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Drake Maye pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Dalton Kincaid receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over TreVeyon Henderson rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mack Hollins receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Mack Hollins 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over DJ Moore receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Romeo Doubs receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Ty Johnson receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rhamondre Stevenson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dalton Kincaid 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DJ Moore 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Frank Gore Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Lan Larison 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Reggie Gilliam 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Hunter Henry 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dawson Knox 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Romeo Doubs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ty Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Eli Raridon 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Corey Kiner 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Keon Coleman 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jackson Hawes 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Palmer 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Khalil Shakir 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyle Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Efton Chism III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drake Maye 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tommy DeVito 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ray Davis 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DeMario Douglas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mack Hollins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Buffalo Bills Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
69% Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over New England Patriots Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
31% Team stats6 Buffalo Bills team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points New England Patriots team runs 15.5 Over· Team Points Buffalo Bills Team pass yds 229.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New England Patriots Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New England Patriots Team rush yds 99.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Buffalo Bills Team rush yds 144.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
