New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New England Patriots 33%
Jacksonville Jaguars 67%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head New England Patriots Jacksonville Jaguars
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jakobi Meyers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New England Patriots within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.7 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% New England Patriots within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ New England Patriots within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ New England Patriots within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Jacksonville Jaguars wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat62 NM Nick Mullens pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
71% Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Jakobi Meyers receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Brian Thomas Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Parker Washington receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Romeo Doubs receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Rodriguez Jr. rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Drake Maye pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 37.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mack Hollins receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Parker Washington 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Trevor Lawrence pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Trevor Lawrence pass yds 189.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Bhayshul Tuten rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Drake Maye pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under TreVeyon Henderson rush yds 39.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Mack Hollins 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jakobi Meyers 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Jakobi Meyers 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Mack Hollins 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Trevor Lawrence pass yds 189.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Bhayshul Tuten rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Drake Maye pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over TreVeyon Henderson rush yds 39.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Parker Washington 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Trevor Lawrence pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under TreVeyon Henderson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Rhamondre Stevenson rush yds 37.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Mack Hollins receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Rodriguez Jr. rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Bhayshul Tuten 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drake Maye pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Parker Washington receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Romeo Doubs receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jakobi Meyers receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Brian Thomas Jr. receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Chris Rodriguez Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Rhamondre Stevenson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Parker Washington 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Josh Cameron 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Trevor Lawrence 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nick Mullens pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Tommy DeVito pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jakobi Meyers 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Lan Larison 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Reggie Gilliam 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Hunter Henry 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brenton Strange 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Romeo Doubs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Eli Raridon 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Corey Kiner 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyle Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Efton Chism III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Drake Maye 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Quintin Morris 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nate Boerkircher 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Nick Mullens 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brian Thomas Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tommy DeVito 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD DeMario Douglas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mack Hollins 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ameer Abdullah 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Jacksonville Jaguars Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 35/7 Hit
67% Both total runs 40.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 40.5 Under· Totals Under New England Patriots Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 6/36 Miss
33% Team stats6 New England Patriots team runs 14.5 Over· Team Points Jacksonville Jaguars team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Jacksonville Jaguars Team pass yds 179.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Jacksonville Jaguars Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New England Patriots Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New England Patriots Team pass yds 224.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
