New York Jets at Chicago Bears — Game center Final NFL
Oct 4 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Jets 29%
Chicago Bears 71%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head New York Jets Chicago Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 64%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 4games 5TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(15games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 4 current-season appearances, 5 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (15 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.3 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Chicago Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 23/13 Hit
71% Both total runs 42.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 42.5 Under· Totals Under New York Jets Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 12/24 Miss
29% Winning margin8 New York Jets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
70% Chicago Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ New York Jets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Chicago Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ New York Jets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Chicago Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ New York Jets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Chicago Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat53 GS Geno Smith pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 4games 5TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(15games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 4 current-season appearances, 5 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (15 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.3 basis scoring distribution
64% Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Kalif Raymond receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Tyson Bagent pass TD 0.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Garrett Wilson receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyle Monangai rush yds 69.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rome Odunze receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braelon Allen rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 39.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luther Burden III 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Case Keenum pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under D'Andre Swift rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Geno Smith pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Kalif Raymond 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Garrett Wilson 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over D'Andre Swift 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Garrett Wilson 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Kalif Raymond 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Geno Smith pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Case Keenum pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over D'Andre Swift rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Luther Burden III 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 39.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kyle Monangai rush yds 69.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rome Odunze receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Braelon Allen rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kalif Raymond receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Tyson Bagent pass TD 0.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Garrett Wilson receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Kyle Monangai 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Geno Smith pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Rome Odunze 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jahdae Walker 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Roschon Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Garrett Wilson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Braelon Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kenyon Sadiq 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Case Keenum 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Colston Loveland 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Zavion Thomas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Omar Cooper Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Luther Burden III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cole Kmet 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jelani Woods 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sam Roush 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jeremy Ruckert 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kalif Raymond 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyson Bagent 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Isaiah Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sterling Shepard 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Team stats6 New York Jets team runs 17.5 Over· Team Points Chicago Bears team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Chicago Bears Team pass yds 214.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New York Jets Team pass yds 199.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Chicago Bears Team rush yds 209.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New York Jets Team rush yds 74.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
