New York Jets at Chicago Bears — Game center Scheduled NFL
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Pregame model New York Jets 32%
Chicago Bears 68%
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head New York Jets Chicago Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
QB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Explore the models All Players Game
Winning margin8 New York Jets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 6.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
73% New York Jets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Chicago Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ New York Jets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Chicago Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ New York Jets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Chicago Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Chicago Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ player stat51 TB Tyson Bagent pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 1games 0TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(662games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.1TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 1 current-season appearances, 0 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (662 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.1 TD. Participation assumed.) → expected 1.1 basis scoring distribution
71% Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Geno Smith pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kalif Raymond receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Rome Odunze receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under D'Andre Swift rush yds 54.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Garrett Wilson receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Kyle Monangai rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luther Burden III 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Geno Smith pass yds 224.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Braelon Allen rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Case Keenum pass yds 199.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Garrett Wilson 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Kalif Raymond 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over D'Andre Swift 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kalif Raymond 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Case Keenum pass yds 199.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Garrett Wilson 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Luther Burden III 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Geno Smith pass yds 224.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Braelon Allen rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Kyle Monangai rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over D'Andre Swift rush yds 54.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Garrett Wilson receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rome Odunze receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kalif Raymond receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Geno Smith pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Rome Odunze 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyson Bagent pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Garrett Wilson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Braelon Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kenyon Sadiq 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jahdae Walker 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kyle Monangai 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Colston Loveland 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Case Keenum 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Zavion Thomas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Omar Cooper Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cole Kmet 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Luther Burden III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jelani Woods 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sam Roush 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kalif Raymond 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyson Bagent 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jeremy Ruckert 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sterling Shepard 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Chicago Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
68% Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under New York Jets Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
32% Team stats6 Chicago Bears team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points New York Jets team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Chicago Bears Team rush yds 159.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Chicago Bears Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New York Jets Team pass yds 244.5 Over· Team Pass Yds New York Jets Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
