New York Jets at Detroit Lions — Game center Final NFL
Sep 27 (Sun) · 5:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate New York Jets 30%
Detroit Lions 70%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head New York Jets Detroit Lions
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 73%
Model probability
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) Jared Goff pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Explore the models All Players Game
player stat54 JG Jahmyr Gibbs 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(17games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.3TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (17 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.3 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.3TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
73% Jared Goff pass TD 2.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Geno Smith pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Garrett Wilson receiving yds 74.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Adonai Mitchell receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Amon-Ra St. Brown 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Sam LaPorta receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Breece Hall rush yds 49.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Sione Vaki rush yds 27.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Braelon Allen rush yds 34.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Jared Goff pass yds 214.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jahmyr Gibbs rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Amon-Ra St. Brown 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Geno Smith pass yds 269.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Adonai Mitchell 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Garrett Wilson 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under Jahmyr Gibbs 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jahmyr Gibbs 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Garrett Wilson 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Jared Goff pass yds 214.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jahmyr Gibbs rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Amon-Ra St. Brown 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Geno Smith pass yds 269.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Adonai Mitchell 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Sione Vaki rush yds 27.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jahmyr Gibbs receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Braelon Allen rush yds 34.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Breece Hall rush yds 49.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Amon-Ra St. Brown receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Sam LaPorta receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Garrett Wilson receiving yds 74.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Adonai Mitchell receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Jared Goff pass TD 2.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Kenyon Sadiq receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Geno Smith pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Garrett Wilson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Braelon Allen 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sam LaPorta 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kenyon Sadiq 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Isaac TeSlaa 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Breece Hall 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jameson Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sione Vaki 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jackson Meeks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Omar Cooper Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jelani Woods 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brock Wright 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jeremy Ruckert 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Adonai Mitchell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Mason Taylor 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sterling Shepard 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD games4 Detroit Lions Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 31/25 Hit
70% Both total runs 48.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 48.5 Under· Totals Under New York Jets Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 24/32 Miss
30% Winning margin8 New York Jets within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 7.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
69% Detroit Lions wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ New York Jets within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Detroit Lions wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ New York Jets within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Detroit Lions wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ New York Jets within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Detroit Lions wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Team stats6 Detroit Lions team runs 28.5 Over· Team Points New York Jets team runs 20.5 Over· Team Points New York Jets Team pass yds 289.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Detroit Lions Team pass yds 234.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Detroit Lions Team rush yds 104.5 Over· Team Rush Yds New York Jets Team rush yds 94.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
