Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears — Game center Final NFL
Sep 29 (Tue) · 12:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Philadelphia Eagles 41%
Chicago Bears 59%
Locked before start
Philadelphia Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 41% Philadelphia Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 32% Tyson Bagent pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71% Showing 3 of 50 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Philadelphia Eagles Chicago Bears
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 87%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 2games 2TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(15games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.8TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 2 current-season appearances, 2 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (15 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.8 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.8TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
TE sample adjusted (games 수 적음) 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 84%
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View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 1TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(13games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 1 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (13 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
WR sample adjusted (games 수 적음) D'Andre Swift 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Explore the models All Players Game
player stat66 DG Dallas Goedert 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 2games 2TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(15games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.8TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 2 current-season appearances, 2 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (15 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.8 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.8TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
87% DW Dontayvion Wicks 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 3games 1TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(13games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 0.2TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 3 current-season appearances, 1 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (13 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 0.2 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 0.2TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
84% D'Andre Swift 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Caleb Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cole Kmet 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyson Bagent pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Andy Dalton pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Darius Cooper 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Kalif Raymond receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dallas Goedert receiving yds 49.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Caleb Williams pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Dontayvion Wicks receiving yds 54.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DeVonta Smith 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Saquon Barkley rush yds 59.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Kyle Monangai rush yds 64.5 Under· Rush Yds Under DeVonta Smith 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Jahdae Walker 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD D'Andre Swift rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Rome Odunze receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under DeVonta Smith receiving yds 59.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Case Keenum pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jalen Hurts pass yds 204.5 Under· Pass Yds Under Jalen Hurts rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Luther Burden III 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dontayvion Wicks 리셉션 3.5 Over· Receptions Over Kalif Raymond 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Jalen Hurts pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Jalen Hurts pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Kalif Raymond 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Dontayvion Wicks 리셉션 3.5 Under· Receptions Under Luther Burden III 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Case Keenum pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jalen Hurts pass yds 204.5 Over· Pass Yds Over Jalen Hurts rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over D'Andre Swift rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Rome Odunze receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DeVonta Smith receiving yds 59.5 Over· Rec Yds Over DeVonta Smith 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Kyle Monangai rush yds 64.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Saquon Barkley rush yds 59.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Dontayvion Wicks receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Caleb Williams pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Luther Burden III receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Dallas Goedert receiving yds 49.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Kalif Raymond receiving yds 54.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Case Keenum pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Saquon Barkley 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalen Hurts 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Rome Odunze 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyson Bagent pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Andy Dalton pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Kyle Monangai 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Colston Loveland 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Marquise Brown 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Zach Ertz 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Case Keenum 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tank Bigsby 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Zavion Thomas 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Sam Roush 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Makai Lemon 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tyson Bagent 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Andy Dalton 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Luther Burden III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kalif Raymond 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Winning margin8 Chicago Bears wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Chicago Bears wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Chicago Bears wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Chicago Bears wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ Philadelphia Eagles within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Philadelphia Eagles within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Philadelphia Eagles within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Philadelphia Eagles within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 games4 Chicago Bears Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 27/8 Hit
59% Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under Philadelphia Eagles Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 7/28 Miss
41% Team stats6 Philadelphia Eagles team runs 19.5 Over· Team Points Chicago Bears team runs 24.5 Over· Team Points Philadelphia Eagles Team rush yds 109.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Chicago Bears Team rush yds 199.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Chicago Bears Team pass yds 209.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Philadelphia Eagles Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
