Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys — Game center Final NFL
Oct 9 (Fri) · 12:15 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Tampa Bay Buccaneers 45%
Dallas Cowboys 55%
Locked before start
Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 75% Jalon Daniels pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under 71% Dallas Cowboys Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability 55% Miss Showing 3 of 59 locked markets
Behind the probability 잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Head to head Tampa Bay Buccaneers Dallas Cowboys
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD 79%
Locked at publish
View model reasoning 잠정value: 이번 season 출전 5games 7TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.0TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 5 current-season appearances, 7 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.0 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.0TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
RB sample adjusted (games 수 적음) CeeDee Lamb 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalon Daniels pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Explore the models All Players Game
player stat57 JW Javonte Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Low
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 5games 7TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.0TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 5 current-season appearances, 7 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.0 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.0TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
79% CeeDee Lamb 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalon Daniels pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Bucky Irving 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Cade Otton receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Chris Godwin Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Jalon Daniels rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Tyler Goodson rush yds 32.5 Under· Rush Yds Under George Pickens receiving yds 64.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Bucky Irving rush yds 74.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Javonte Williams rush yds 44.5 Under· Rush Yds Under Emeka Egbuka receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under CeeDee Lamb receiving yds 79.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Ryan Flournoy receiving yds 44.5 Under· Rec Yds Under Dak Prescott pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Dak Prescott pass yds 264.5 Under· Pass Yds Under George Pickens 리셉션 5.5 Under· Receptions Under Emeka Egbuka 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under Chris Godwin Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Under· Receptions Under CeeDee Lamb 리셉션 6.5 Under· Receptions Under CeeDee Lamb 리셉션 6.5 Over· Receptions Over Chris Godwin Jr. 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Sean Tucker 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jake Ferguson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emeka Egbuka 리셉션 4.5 Over· Receptions Over Dak Prescott pass yds 264.5 Over· Pass Yds Over George Pickens 리셉션 5.5 Over· Receptions Over Dak Prescott pass TD 1.5 Under· Pass TDs Under Ryan Flournoy receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over CeeDee Lamb receiving yds 79.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Emeka Egbuka receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Javonte Williams rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Tyler Goodson rush yds 32.5 Over· Rush Yds Over George Pickens receiving yds 64.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Bucky Irving rush yds 74.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Jalon Daniels rush yds 44.5 Over· Rush Yds Over Chris Godwin Jr. receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over Cade Otton receiving yds 44.5 Over· Rec Yds Over George Pickens 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emeka Egbuka 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kenny Gainwell 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalon Daniels pass TD 1.5 Over· Pass TDs Over Tyler Goodson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ted Hurst III 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Tez Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Ryan Flournoy 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalen McMillan 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Kameron Johnson 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jonathan Mingo 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD KaVontae Turpin 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Payne Durham 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Chris Godwin Jr. 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Jalon Daniels 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Dak Prescott 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Brevyn Spann-Ford 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Emari Demercado 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Hunter Luepke 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD Winning margin8 Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 15 pts· Spread +14.5 Low
expected margin 5.6 pts; chance the underdog stays within 15 pts or wins (complement of the same normal approximation)
75% Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 11 pts· Spread +10.5 Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 8 pts· Spread +7.5 Dallas Cowboys wins by 4+· Wins by 4+ Tampa Bay Buccaneers within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Dallas Cowboys wins by 8+· Wins by 8+ Dallas Cowboys wins by 11+· Wins by 11+ Dallas Cowboys wins by 15+· Wins by 15+ games4 Dallas Cowboys Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
잠정 NFL model: record 가상 8games 0.500 쪽에 adjusted하고, runs 신호는 games수/(games수+8) 만큼만 applied한다. QB adjusted past strength index 50% blend. 2자 approximation draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Provisional NFL model: record regularized toward 0.500 with 8 prior games; scoring signal weighted by games/(games+8). 50% QB-adjusted historical strength index blend. Two-way approximation; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 16/25 Miss
55% Both total runs 44.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 44.5 Under· Totals Under Tampa Bay Buccaneers Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
same 잠정 Home Win model 여집합이며, draw 따로 model링하지 않는다. (Complement of the same provisional home-win model; ties not separately modelled.)
runs 24/17 Hit
45% Team stats6 Tampa Bay Buccaneers team runs 18.5 Over· Team Points Dallas Cowboys team runs 25.5 Over· Team Points Dallas Cowboys Team rush yds 69.5 Over· Team Rush Yds Dallas Cowboys Team pass yds 279.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team pass yds 194.5 Over· Team Pass Yds Tampa Bay Buccaneers Team rush yds 149.5 Over· Team Rush Yds strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
