Stadio Olimpico Grande TorinoSep 14 (Mon) · 4:30 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
AS Roma80%
Draw17%
Torino3%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 2.14 vs 0.41 (away Points per game 2.11 / runs allowed 0.60)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Torino 0.1–10.8%, Draw 7.1–26.9%, AS Roma 67.1–88.9%
AS Roma leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.73 more expected goals). The draw sits at 17%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
9
16
18
13
7
3
1
3
7
7
5
3
1
2
1
1
1
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
47%
Under 2.5 goals
53%
Both teams score
30%
Torino clean sheet
12%
AS Roma clean sheet
67%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
