Atalanta at Juventus — Game center Final Serie A
Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Atalanta 16%
Draw 31%
Juventus 53%
Locked before start
Juventus 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 75% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 64% Hit Juventus Home Win· Home Win 53% Hit Showing 3 of 19 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 1.89 vs 0.58 (home Points per game 1.74 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.89 - 0.58
+23.5%p vs league average
2.47 vs 2.90 goals
-2.6%p
Head to head Atalanta Juventus
Model expected goals
0.58 1.89
Data source: ESPN API
Francisco Conceição Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Éderson Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Gianluca Scamacca Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Juventus 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 1.89 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
75% Atalanta 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Atalanta clean sheet· Clean Sheet Juventus 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Juventus clean sheet· Clean Sheet Atalanta 2+ goals· 2+ Goals total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.47 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
64% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Juventus Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.89 vs 0.58 (home Points per game 1.74 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/1 Hit
53% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
31% Atalanta Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 0.58 vs 1.89 (away Points per game 1.15 / runs allowed 1.40)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 0/3 Miss
16% Goalscorers18 Francisco Conceição Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Francisco Conceição 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Éderson Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Éderson 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Gianluca Scamacca Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Gianluca Scamacca 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Lazar Samardzic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Lazar Samardzic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Nikola Krstovic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Nikola Krstovic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Edon Zhegrova Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Edon Zhegrova 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Bremer Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Teun Koopmeiners Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Bremer 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Edon Zhegrova 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Bremer 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Teun Koopmeiners 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Juventus KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:00 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Atalanta MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 68.0%
Draw 22.0%
Away win 10.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Juventus 55.7–80.3%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Atalanta 2.1–17.9%
Juventus leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.30 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 9 4 1 1 16 10 3 2 15 9 3 3 9 6 2 4 4 3 5 2 1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 45%
Under 2.5 goals 55%
Both teams score 38%
Juventus clean sheet 56%
Atalanta clean sheet 15% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
