Stadio Diego Armando MaradonaSep 13 (Sun) · 4:00 PM UTC
What did the model expect?
Unverified model estimate
Bologna20%
Draw33%
Napoli47%
MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 1.32 vs 0.87 (home Points per game 1.42 / runs allowed 1.20) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Napoli 32.8–59.2%, Draw 18.8–43.2%, Bologna 11.9–34.1%
Napoli leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.45 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 31% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
12
9
4
1
1
14
14
6
2
2
10
8
4
1
3
4
4
2
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
63%
Both teams score
44%
Napoli clean sheet
42%
Bologna clean sheet
27%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
