expected runs 0.45 vs 1.45 (home Points per game 1.45 / runs allowed 2.20) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Cagliari leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.00 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 28% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
16
21
16
7
3
1
6
10
7
4
1
2
1
2
2
3
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
30%
Under 2.5 goals
70%
Both teams score
29%
Udinese clean sheet
23%
Cagliari clean sheet
64%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
