expected runs 1.12 vs 1.62 (away Points per game 2.21 / runs allowed 1.20)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Frosinone 34.8–61.2%, Draw 15.3–38.7%, Como 13.6–36.4%
Frosinone leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.50 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 27% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
8
6
4
1
1
10
13
6
2
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
5
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
51%
Under 2.5 goals
49%
Both teams score
55%
Frosinone clean sheet
33%
Como clean sheet
20%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
