expected runs 1.89 vs 1.80 (away Points per game 1.49 / runs allowed 2.40)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Attacking output is close (1.80 vs 1.89 expected goals), so no side separates clearly. The draw sits at 23%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
4
4
3
1
1
4
9
8
5
2
2
4
8
7
5
2
3
2
4
4
3
1
4
2
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
72%
Genoa clean sheet
15%
Fiorentina clean sheet
17%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
