expected runs 1.27 vs 0.84 (away Points per game 1.67 / runs allowed 0.80)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 798 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Napoli 11.9–34.1%, Draw 18.8–43.2%, Frosinone 31.9–58.1%
Frosinone leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.43 more expected goals). The draw stays elevated at 31% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
13
15
10
4
1
1
9
14
8
3
1
2
4
5
4
2
3
1
1
1
4
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
35%
Under 2.5 goals
65%
Both teams score
42%
Napoli clean sheet
28%
Frosinone clean sheet
43%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
