expected runs 1.28 vs 0.91 (home Points per game 0.83 / runs allowed 1.40) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Parma leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.37 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 31% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
12
9
4
1
1
13
14
6
2
2
9
8
4
1
3
4
4
2
4
1
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
37%
Under 2.5 goals
63%
Both teams score
44%
Parma clean sheet
40%
Genoa clean sheet
28%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
