expected runs 2.78 vs 0.95 (home Points per game 2.25 / runs allowed 0.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: AS Roma 63.6–86.4%, Draw 5.6–24.4%, Internazionale 1.4–16.6%
AS Roma leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.84 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 15%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
3
2
1
7
7
3
2
9
9
4
1
3
9
8
4
1
4
6
6
3
5
3
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
71%
Under 2.5 goals
29%
Both teams score
58%
AS Roma clean sheet
39%
Internazionale clean sheet
6%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
