Lazio at Venezia — Game center Final Serie A
Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Lazio 46%
Draw 32%
Venezia 22%
Locked before start
Lazio 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 76% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 70% Hit Lazio Away Win· Away Win 46% Hit Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.24 vs 0.56 (away Points per game 1.36 / runs allowed 0.60)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
0.56 - 2.24
+30.3%p vs league average
2.80 vs 2.90 goals
+0.6%p
Head to head Lazio Venezia
Model expected goals
2.24 0.56
Data source: ESPN API
Mattia Zaccagni Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Davide Frattesi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Tijjani Noslin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Lazio 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.24 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 2/1 Hit
76% Venezia 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Lazio 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Venezia clean sheet· Clean Sheet Venezia 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Lazio clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 2.80 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
70% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Lazio Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.24 vs 0.56 (away Points per game 1.36 / runs allowed 0.60)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
goals 2/1 Hit
46% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 2/0 Miss
32% Venezia Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 0.56 vs 2.24 (home Points per game 1.20 / runs allowed 2.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 0/3 Miss
22% Goalscorers20 Mattia Zaccagni Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Mattia Zaccagni 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Davide Frattesi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Davide Frattesi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Davide Frattesi 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Tijjani Noslin Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matteo Cancellieri Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Antoine Hainaut Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Akor Adams Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer John Yeboah Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Richie Sagrado Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Antoine Hainaut 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Akor Adams 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 John Yeboah 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Richie Sagrado 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tijjani Noslin 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Matteo Cancellieri 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Tijjani Noslin 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Mattia Zaccagni 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Matteo Cancellieri 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Venezia KICKOFF Sep 19 (Sat) · 6:45 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Lazio Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Venezia 0.3–13.7%, Draw 7.8–28.2%, Lazio 64.7–87.3%
Lazio leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.68 more expected goals). The draw sits at 18%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 7 13 15 11 6 3 1 3 8 8 6 4 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 4 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Under 2.5 goals 47%
Both teams score 39%
Venezia clean sheet 11%
Lazio clean sheet 57% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
