expected runs 2.35 vs 0.46 (home Points per game 1.52 / runs allowed 0.80) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: AC Milan 69.4–90.6%, Draw 6.3–25.7%, Lecce 0.1–10.8%
AC Milan leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.89 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
7
2
1
14
7
1
2
17
8
2
3
13
6
1
4
7
4
5
3
2
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
53%
Under 2.5 goals
47%
Both teams score
34%
AC Milan clean sheet
63%
Lecce clean sheet
10%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
