Napoli at Fiorentina — Game center Final Serie A
Sep 20 (Sun) · 10:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Napoli 38%
Draw 31%
Fiorentina 31%
Locked before start
Napoli 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 73% Hit Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 71% Hit Fiorentina 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 69% Hit Showing 3 of 25 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.17 vs 1.45 (away Points per game 1.42 / runs allowed 1.20)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.45 - 2.17
+12.9%p vs league average
3.62 vs 2.90 goals
-4.3%p
Head to head Napoli Fiorentina
Model expected goals
2.17 1.45
Data source: ESPN API
Álex Jiménez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Franco Mastantuono Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Mateo Pellegrino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Napoli 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.17 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 1/1 Hit
73% Fiorentina 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Napoli 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Fiorentina 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Fiorentina clean sheet· Clean Sheet Napoli clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 3.62 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 2/2 Hit
71% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Napoli Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.17 vs 1.45 (away Points per game 1.42 / runs allowed 1.20)
goals 1/2 Miss
38% Fiorentina Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.45 vs 2.17 (home Points per game 1.57 / runs allowed 2.40) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 1/2 Miss
31% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 0/0 Hit
31% Goalscorers20 Álex Jiménez Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Álex Jiménez 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Franco Mastantuono Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Franco Mastantuono 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Mateo Pellegrino Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Mateo Pellegrino 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Rasmus Højlund Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Rasmus Højlund 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Franco Mastantuono 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Rasmus Højlund 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Stanislav Lobotka Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Matteo Politano Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kevin De Bruyne Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Stanislav Lobotka 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Matteo Politano 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kevin De Bruyne 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Mateo Pellegrino 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Stanislav Lobotka 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Matteo Politano 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kevin De Bruyne 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Fiorentina KICKOFF Sep 20 (Sun) · 10:30 AM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Napoli Not enough model data for an estimate.
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Fiorentina 12.7–35.3%, Draw 11.1–32.9%, Napoli 39.8–66.2%
Napoli leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.72 more expected goals). The draw sits at 22%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 4 5 6 4 2 1 3 9 9 7 4 2 2 3 6 7 5 3 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 4 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 69%
Under 2.5 goals 31%
Both teams score 69%
Fiorentina clean sheet 11%
Napoli clean sheet 23% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
