Sassuolo at Monza — Game center Final Serie A
Sep 18 (Fri) · 6:45 PM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Sassuolo 42%
Draw 29%
Monza 29%
Locked before start
Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 77% Hit Sassuolo 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 78% Hit Monza 1+ goals· 1+ Goals 73% Hit Showing 3 of 27 locked markets
Behind the probability expected runs 2.50 vs 1.95 (away Points per game 1.64 / runs allowed 1.80)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Expected goal gap
1.95 - 2.50
+9.9%p vs league average
4.46 vs 2.90 goals
-9.4%p
Head to head Sassuolo Monza
Model expected goals
2.50 1.95
Data source: ESPN API
Domenico Berardi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Gustavo Varela Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Vasilije Adzic 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Explore the models All Players Game
Team stats6 Sassuolo 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Low
team expected goals 2.50 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal
goals 1/1 Hit
78% Monza 1+ goals· 1+ Goals Sassuolo 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Monza 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Monza clean sheet· Clean Sheet Sassuolo clean sheet· Clean Sheet total runs4 BO Both Total 2+ goals· O 1.5 Low
combined expected goals 4.46 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals
goals 3/2 Hit
77% Both both teams to score· BTTS Both Total 3+ goals· O 2.5 Both Total 4+ goals· O 3.5 games3 Sassuolo Away Win· Away Win Low
expected runs 2.50 vs 1.95 (away Points per game 1.64 / runs allowed 1.80)
goals 1/3 Miss
42% Monza Home Win· Home Win Low
expected runs 1.95 vs 2.50 (home Points per game 1.41 / runs allowed 2.40) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%
goals 2/2 Hit
29% DR Draw draw· Draw Low
scoring distribution 스코어 격자에서 양 team runs same 칸(0-0, 1-1 …) 모두 더한 value
점차 1/0 Miss
29% Goalscorers24 Domenico Berardi Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Domenico Berardi 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Gustavo Varela Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Gustavo Varela 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Gustavo Varela 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Vasilije Adzic 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Vasilije Adzic Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Vasilije Adzic 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ricardo Mangas Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Andrea Colpani Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Jay Robinson Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Ricardo Mangas 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Andrea Colpani 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Jay Robinson 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Josh Doig Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Kieron Bowie Anytime Scorer· Anytime Scorer Josh Doig 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Kieron Bowie 1 goals 정확히· Exactly 1 Ricardo Mangas 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Andrea Colpani 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Jay Robinson 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Josh Doig 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Kieron Bowie 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Domenico Berardi 멀티goals 2+ goals· 2+ Goals Soccer deep dive SPOLYTICS / MATCH CENTER
Monza KICKOFF Sep 18 (Fri) · 6:45 PM UTC MODEL ANALYSIS
Sassuolo MODEL ESTIMATES
Home win 30.0%
Draw 20.0%
Away win 50.0%
Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes.
Model Goal distribution Lineups Win / draw / loss probability
Estimated range: Monza 17.9–42.1%, Draw 9.4–30.6%, Sassuolo 36.8–63.2%
Sassuolo leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.55 more expected goals). The draw sits at 20%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 2 3 4 3 2 1 2 6 7 6 4 2 2 2 6 7 6 4 2 3 1 3 4 4 2 1 4 2 2 2 1 5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals 81%
Under 2.5 goals 19%
Both teams score 79%
Monza clean sheet 8%
Sassuolo clean sheet 14% Recent form (last 10) Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
View model accuracy summary
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
