expected runs 1.36 vs 0.72 (home Points per game 1.10 / runs allowed 1.20) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· 1X2 normalized to 100%
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Estimated range: Bologna 37.8–64.2%, Draw 17.9–42.1%, Torino 8.6–29.4%
Bologna leads mainly on recent attacking output (0.64 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw stays elevated at 30% because both totals sit in the low-scoring range where the Dixon-Coles correction adds weight.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
14
8
3
1
16
13
4
1
2
11
8
3
3
5
4
1
4
2
1
5
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
34%
Under 2.5 goals
66%
Both teams score
39%
Bologna clean sheet
49%
Torino clean sheet
26%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
