MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability
expected runs 3.00 vs 1.38 (home Points per game 2.33 / runs allowed 1.60) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability
A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
Internazionale leads mainly on recent attacking output (1.62 more expected goals including home advantage). The draw sits at 16%, below the football average, because the total-goals estimate is high.
Goal distribution
Computed from the model's scoreline matrix. These describe the goal distribution, not markets.
Home goals (rows) by away goals (columns) probability
0
1
2
3
4
5
0
2
1
1
1
4
6
3
2
2
6
8
5
2
3
6
8
5
2
4
4
6
4
2
5
2
3
2
1
Rows = home goals, columns = away goals. Cells below 1% are left blank.
Over 2.5 goals
80%
Under 2.5 goals
20%
Both teams score
71%
Internazionale clean sheet
25%
Udinese clean sheet
5%
Head-to-head
Recent form (last 10)
Actual goals scored and conceded in completed matches.
