Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Chicago Sky

81106

Home

Atlanta Dream

State Farm ArenaSep 19 (Sat) · 11:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Chicago Sky13%

Atlanta Dream88%

Locked before start

Atlanta DreamHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability88%Hit
Atlanta Dreamwins by 4+· Spread -3.576%
Atlanta Dreamwins by 6+· Spread -5.570%

Showing 3 of 12 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 28-14 vs 15-27 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 6)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.667 vs 0.357

+18.6%p

absences

home 2 / away 6

+3.7%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Chicago SkyAtlanta Dream

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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games4

Spread6

Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Chicago Sky at Atlanta Dream — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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