Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Connecticut Sun

59103

Home

Atlanta Dream

Gateway CenterSep 17 (Thu) · 11:30 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Connecticut Sun8%

Atlanta Dream92%

Locked before start

Atlanta DreamHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability92%Hit
Atlanta Dreamwins by 4+· Spread -3.583%
Atlanta Dreamwins by 6+· Spread -5.578%

Showing 3 of 14 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 27-14 vs 10-31 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 5)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.659 vs 0.244

+24.9%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

absences

home 2 / away 5

+3.0%p

Head to head

Connecticut SunAtlanta Dream

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

games4

Spread6

Team stats6

strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime.

Newsletter

One email per day. No picks, no spam.

Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice

Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Connecticut Sun at Atlanta Dream — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

Explore the models

Get today's probabilities in your inbox