Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Golden State Valkyries

7675

Home

Los Angeles Sparks

crypto.com ArenaSep 25 (Fri) · 2:00 AM UTC

What did the model expect?

Unverified model estimate

Golden State Valkyries88%

Los Angeles Sparks13%

MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.

Behind the probability

season record 32-12 vs 16-28 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.364 vs 0.727

+21.8%p

absences

home 4 / away 1

+3.6%p

Home edge

+3.5%

-3.5%p

Head to head

Golden State ValkyriesLos Angeles Sparks

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

games4

Spread6

Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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