Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Indiana Fever

8394

Home

Las Vegas Aces

Michelob ULTRA ArenaOct 2 (Fri) · 1:00 AM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Indiana Fever38%

Las Vegas Aces62%

Locked before start

Indiana Feverwithin 10 pts· Spread +9.572%
Indiana Feverwithin 6 pts· Spread +5.559%
Las Vegas AcesHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability62%Hit

Showing 3 of 9 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 31-13 vs 28-16 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 3 / away 1)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.705 vs 0.636

+4.1%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

absences

home 3 / away 1

-2.6%p

Head to head

Indiana FeverLas Vegas Aces

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

Spread6

games4

Team stats6

strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime.

Newsletter

One email per day. No picks, no spam.

Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice

Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Indiana Fever at Las Vegas Aces — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

Explore the models

Get today's probabilities in your inbox