Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries — Game center Scheduled WNBA
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 8:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish Las Vegas Aces 41%
Golden State Valkyries 59%
Behind the probability season record 32-12 vs 31-13 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 2)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head Las Vegas Aces Golden State Valkyries
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
Spread6 Las Vegas Aces within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 Low
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
73% Las Vegas Aces within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 Low
expected margin 2.4 pts; chance the underdog stays within 6 pts or wins
61% Las Vegas Aces within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Golden State Valkyries wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 Golden State Valkyries wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Golden State Valkyries wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 games4 Golden State Valkyries Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 32-12 vs 31-13 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 2)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
59% Both total runs 179.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 179.5 Under· Totals Under Las Vegas Aces Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 31-13 vs 32-12 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
41% Team stats6 Golden State Valkyries team runs 89.5 Over· Team Points Las Vegas Aces team runs 89.5 Over· Team Points Las Vegas Aces team rebounds 31.5 Over· Team REB Las Vegas Aces team assists 18.5 Over· Team AST Golden State Valkyries team rebounds 34.5 Over· Team REB Golden State Valkyries team assists 20.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
