Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Las Vegas Aces

6071

Home

Golden State Valkyries

Chase CenterOct 4 (Sun) · 8:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Las Vegas Aces41%

Golden State Valkyries59%

Locked before start

Las Vegas Aceswithin 10 pts· Spread +9.573%
Golden State ValkyriesHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability59%Hit
Las Vegas Aceswithin 6 pts· Spread +5.561%

Showing 3 of 13 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 32-12 vs 31-13 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 4)· stacking +2pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

absences

home 1 / away 4

+3.6%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Win% gap

0.727 vs 0.705

+1.4%p

Head to head

Las Vegas AcesGolden State Valkyries

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

Spread6

games4

Team stats6

strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime.

Newsletter

One email per day. No picks, no spam.

Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice

Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Las Vegas Aces at Golden State Valkyries — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

Explore the models

Get today's probabilities in your inbox