Las Vegas Aces at Phoenix Mercury — Game center Final WNBA
Sep 25 (Fri) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Las Vegas Aces 82%
Phoenix Mercury 19%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 31-13 vs 16-28 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head Las Vegas Aces Phoenix Mercury
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
games4 Las Vegas Aces Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Medium
season record 31-13 vs 16-28 — away adjustment applied· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 100/83 Hit
82% Both total runs 166.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 166.5 Under· Totals Under Phoenix Mercury Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Medium
season record 16-28 vs 31-13 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 3 / away 3)· stacking -3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 82/101 Miss
19% Spread6 Las Vegas Aces wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 Low
win probability 78% → expected margin 8.9 pts, 최종 score 차 표준편차 11.5 pts normal approximation
68% Las Vegas Aces wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Low
win probability 78% → expected margin 8.9 pts, 최종 score 차 표준편차 11.5 pts normal approximation
62% Phoenix Mercury within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 Las Vegas Aces wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 Phoenix Mercury within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 Phoenix Mercury within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Team stats6 Phoenix Mercury team runs 78.5 Over· Team Points Phoenix Mercury team rebounds 31.5 Over· Team REB Las Vegas Aces team rebounds 31.5 Over· Team REB Las Vegas Aces team assists 18.5 Over· Team AST Las Vegas Aces team runs 88.5 Over· Team Points Phoenix Mercury team assists 20.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice
Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
