Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Los Angeles Sparks

7989

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Las Vegas Aces

Michelob ULTRA ArenaSep 23 (Wed) · 2:00 AM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Los Angeles Sparks13%

Las Vegas Aces88%

Locked before start

Las Vegas AcesHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability88%Hit
Las Vegas Aceswins by 4+· Spread -3.575%
Las Vegas Aceswins by 6+· Spread -5.569%

Showing 3 of 12 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 30-13 vs 16-27 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 3 / away 4)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.698 vs 0.372

+19.5%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

absences

home 3 / away 4

+1.0%p

Head to head

Los Angeles SparksLas Vegas Aces

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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games4

Spread6

Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Los Angeles Sparks at Las Vegas Aces — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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