Minnesota Lynx at New York Liberty — Game center Final WNBA
Sep 30 (Wed) · 12:30 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Unverified model estimate Minnesota Lynx 66%
New York Liberty 34%
Missed No pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.
Behind the probability season record 33-11 vs 26-18 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head Minnesota Lynx New York Liberty
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
Spread6 New York Liberty within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 Low
expected margin 4.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
68% New York Liberty within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 Low
expected margin 4.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 6 pts or wins
55% Minnesota Lynx wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 New York Liberty within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Minnesota Lynx wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Minnesota Lynx wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 games4 Minnesota Lynx Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Medium
season record 33-11 vs 26-18 — away adjustment applied· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 71/88 Miss
66% Both total runs 152.5 Over· Totals Over Both total runs 152.5 Under· Totals Under New York Liberty Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Medium
season record 26-18 vs 33-11 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 2)· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%
runs 87/72 Hit
34% Team stats6 New York Liberty team runs 83.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Lynx team runs 68.5 Over· Team Points Minnesota Lynx team assists 19.5 Over· Team AST New York Liberty team rebounds 37.5 Over· Team REB Minnesota Lynx team rebounds 26.5 Over· Team REB New York Liberty team assists 22.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
