New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

New York Liberty

8292

Home

Atlanta Dream

State Farm ArenaOct 4 (Sun) · 6:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

New York Liberty34%

Atlanta Dream66%

Locked before start

New York Libertywithin 10 pts· Spread +9.568%
Atlanta DreamHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability66%Hit
New York Libertywithin 6 pts· Spread +5.555%

Showing 3 of 13 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 30-14 vs 26-18 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 3 / away 2)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.682 vs 0.591

+5.5%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

absences

home 3 / away 2

-1.1%p

Head to head

New York LibertyAtlanta Dream

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

Spread6

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Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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