New York Liberty at Atlanta Dream — Game center Scheduled WNBA
VS
Oct 4 (Sun) · 6:00 PM UTC
Who has the advantage? Locked at publish New York Liberty 34%
Atlanta Dream 66%
Behind the probability season record 30-14 vs 26-18 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 2)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head New York Liberty Atlanta Dream
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
Spread6 New York Liberty within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 Low
expected margin 4.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
68% New York Liberty within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 Low
expected margin 4.0 pts; chance the underdog stays within 6 pts or wins
55% Atlanta Dream wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 New York Liberty within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Atlanta Dream wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Atlanta Dream wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 games4 Atlanta Dream Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Medium
season record 30-14 vs 26-18 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 2)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%
66% Both total runs 171.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 171.5 Over· Totals Over New York Liberty Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Medium
season record 26-18 vs 30-14 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
34% Team stats6 New York Liberty team runs 83.5 Over· Team Points Atlanta Dream team runs 87.5 Over· Team Points New York Liberty team rebounds 37.5 Over· Team REB Atlanta Dream team rebounds 29.5 Over· Team REB Atlanta Dream team assists 19.5 Over· Team AST New York Liberty team assists 22.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
