New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

New York Liberty

9381

Home

Minnesota Lynx

Target CenterSep 18 (Fri) · 11:30 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

New York Liberty24%

Minnesota Lynx77%

Locked before start

Minnesota LynxHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability77%Miss
New York Libertywithin 10 pts· Spread +9.559%
Minnesota Lynxwins by 4+· Spread -3.562%

Showing 3 of 8 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 31-10 vs 25-16 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 2)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.756 vs 0.610

+8.8%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

New York LibertyMinnesota Lynx

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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Spread6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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