New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

New York Liberty

9175

Home

Minnesota Lynx

Target CenterSep 27 (Sun) · 6:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Unverified model estimate

New York Liberty26%

Minnesota Lynx74%

MissedNo pick was locked before this game started, so the current numbers are not graded as a record.

Behind the probability

season record 33-11 vs 26-18 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 2 / away 2)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.750 vs 0.591

+9.5%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

New York LibertyMinnesota Lynx

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

games4

Spread6

Team stats6

strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime.

Newsletter

One email per day. No picks, no spam.

Free forever. By subscribing you consent to receive the daily probability email; unsubscribe any time from the link in every email.Privacy notice

Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

New York Liberty at Minnesota Lynx — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

Explore the models

Get today's probabilities in your inbox