Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Phoenix Mercury

8287

Home

Dallas Wings

College Park CenterSep 19 (Sat) · 5:00 PM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Phoenix Mercury22%

Dallas Wings79%

Locked before start

Dallas WingsHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability79%Hit
Dallas Wingswins by 4+· Spread -3.565%
Dallas Wingswins by 6+· Spread -5.558%

Showing 3 of 11 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 26-16 vs 15-27 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 3 / away 3)· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.619 vs 0.357

+15.7%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Phoenix MercuryDallas Wings

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

Explore the models

games4

Spread6

Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Phoenix Mercury at Dallas Wings — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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