Phoenix Mercury at Portland Fire — Game center Final WNBA
Sep 18 (Fri) · 2:00 AM UTC
What did the model expect? Pregame forecast Phoenix Mercury 43%
Portland Fire 57%
Locked before start
Phoenix Mercury within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 75% Phoenix Mercury within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 62% Phoenix Mercury within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 56% Showing 3 of 16 locked markets
Behind the probability season record 16-25 vs 15-26 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 6 / away 3)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
How to read this probability A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.
What moved this probability
Head to head Phoenix Mercury Portland Fire
Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.
Data source: ESPN API
Explore the models All Players Game
Spread6 Phoenix Mercury within 10 pts· Spread +9.5 High
expected margin 1.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 10 pts or wins
75% Phoenix Mercury within 6 pts· Spread +5.5 High
expected margin 1.1 pts; chance the underdog stays within 6 pts or wins
62% Phoenix Mercury within 4 pts· Spread +3.5 Portland Fire wins by 4+· Spread -3.5 Portland Fire wins by 6+· Spread -5.5 Portland Fire wins by 10+· Spread -9.5 games4 Portland Fire Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability Low
season record 16-25 vs 15-26 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 6 / away 3)· stacking +1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 91/95 Miss
57% Both total runs 156.5 Under· Totals Under Both total runs 156.5 Over· Totals Over Phoenix Mercury Away Win· Away Team · Win Probability Low
season record 15-26 vs 16-25 — away adjustment applied· stacking -1pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)
runs 94/92 Hit
43% Team stats6 Portland Fire team runs 77.5 Over· Team Points Phoenix Mercury team rebounds 31.5 Over· Team REB Phoenix Mercury team runs 78.5 Over· Team Points Portland Fire team assists 20.5 Over· Team AST Portland Fire team rebounds 30.5 Over· Team REB Phoenix Mercury team assists 20.5 Over· Team AST strength index + simulation adjusted probabilities and full history are in Pro — $7.99/mo, cancel anytime. Get today's probabilities in your inbox One email per day. No picks, no spam.
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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.
