Portland Fire at Golden State Valkyries — WNBA win probability & player stat model

Final WNBA

Away

Portland Fire

6682

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Golden State Valkyries

Chase CenterSep 19 (Sat) · 2:00 AM UTC

What did the model expect?

Pregame forecast

Portland Fire12%

Golden State Valkyries89%

Locked before start

Golden State ValkyriesHome Win· Home Team · Win Probability89%Hit
Golden State Valkyrieswins by 4+· Spread -3.576%
Golden State Valkyrieswins by 6+· Spread -5.571%

Showing 3 of 11 locked markets

Behind the probability

season record 30-11 vs 16-26 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 6)· stacking +3pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)

How to read this probability

A probability estimates how often an outcome would occur in comparable situations. It is not a guarantee. Live estimates and pregame forecasts are shown separately.

What moved this probability

Win% gap

0.732 vs 0.381

+21.0%p

absences

home 1 / away 6

+5.2%p

Home edge

+3.5%

+3.5%p

Head to head

Portland FireGolden State Valkyries

Additional team comparison data is not available for this game yet.

Data source: ESPN API

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Spread6

Team stats6

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Computed only from public stats APIs and statistical models. No odds, lines, or sportsbooks. Outcomes are not guaranteed.

Portland Fire at Golden State Valkyries — Game center

What did the model expect?

Head to head

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