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Play of the Day archive

Each day five to six legs are chosen from different games by the same criteria, published, and then marked correct or missed once the games finish. Losing days stay up. The joint probability is the product of the legs (they are cross-game by construction); these are statistical estimates and outcomes are not guaranteed.

The selection criteria are the same every day regardless of results. The full recalibration runs nightly on its own schedule and is documented in the learning log. /learning

2026-09-20 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Not yet graded21.8%

  • 1.Both · Total 2+ goals

    84%

    EPL · Manchester United @ Fulham · Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:30 PDT · High· correct

    combined expected goals 3.25 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · total runs market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied · Live game · verifiable in real time

  • 2.Cleveland Guardians · home +1.5

    79%

    MLB · Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · Sep 20 (Sun) · 10:40 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 3.Paris Saint-Germain · 1+ goals

    81%

    Ligue 1 · Paris Saint-Germain @ Marseille · Sep 20 (Sun) · 11:45 PDT · High· correct

    team expected goals 1.64 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · team stat market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 4.Pittsburgh Pirates · home +1.5

    74%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Sep 20 (Sun) · 10:35 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Milwaukee Brewers · away +1.5

    74%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles · Sep 20 (Sun) · 4:20 PDT · High

    probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 6.Lille · 1+ goals

    74%

    Ligue 1 · Lille @ Nice · Sep 20 (Sun) · 8:15 PDT · High· correct

    team expected goals 1.35 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · team stat market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied · Live game · verifiable in real time

2026-09-19 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed25.4%

  • 1.Jeonbuk · Home Win

    86%

    K League 1 · Gwangju @ Jeonbuk · Sep 20 (Sun) · 12:30 PDT · Medium· missed

    expected runs 2.70 vs 0.49 (home Points per game 1.41 / runs allowed 0.90) — sum of home-win cells in the scoring distribution score grid· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,782 past events)· 1X2 normalized to 100%

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 2.Lyon · 1+ goals

    81%

    Ligue 1 · Stade Rennais @ Lyon · Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:45 PDT · High· correct

    team expected goals 1.65 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · team stat market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 3.Cleveland Guardians · home +1.5

    78%

    MLB · Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · Sep 19 (Sat) · 3:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 4.Pete Crow-Armstrong · hits 1+

    76%

    MLB · Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · Sep 19 (Sat) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.280 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.264· BvP 4/10 adjusted 0.283, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 5.Both · Total 2+ goals

    78%

    Ligue 1 · Strasbourg @ Paris FC · Sep 19 (Sat) · 8:15 PDT · High· correct

    combined expected goals 2.84 — scoring distribution chance of 2+ goals

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · total runs market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied · Live game · verifiable in real time

  • 6.Toulouse · 1+ goals

    79%

    Ligue 1 · Le Havre AC @ Toulouse · Sep 19 (Sat) · 11:45 PDT · High· correct

    team expected goals 1.56 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · team stat market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 1 (Jeonbuk · Home Win, 86%, Medium confidence) missed — confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied
  • Leg 4 (Pete Crow-Armstrong · hits 1+, 76%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-18 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed18.2%

  • 1.Cleveland Guardians · home +1.5

    78%

    MLB · Athletics @ Cleveland Guardians · Sep 18 (Fri) · 4:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 2.Pete Crow-Armstrong · hits 1+

    73%

    MLB · Chicago Cubs @ Cincinnati Reds · Sep 18 (Fri) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 3.Jo Adell · hits 1+

    73%

    MLB · Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels · Sep 18 (Fri) · 6:38 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.259 adjusted 0.297, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 4.Ulsan · 1+ goals

    82%

    K League 1 · Ulsan @ Anyang · Sep 19 (Sat) · 3:00 PDT · Medium· correct

    team expected goals 1.70 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · team stat market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Pittsburgh Pirates · home +1.5

    73%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Sep 18 (Fri) · 3:40 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.4 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 6.Milwaukee Brewers · away +1.5

    73%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Baltimore Orioles · Sep 18 (Fri) · 4:05 PDT · High

    probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (Pete Crow-Armstrong · hits 1+, 73%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied
  • Leg 3 (Jo Adell · hits 1+, 73%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-16 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed16.4%

  • 1.Junior Caminero · hits 1+

    84%

    MLB · Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays · Sep 16 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.279 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.284, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -8pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 2.Max Muncy · hits 1+

    75%

    MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · Sep 16 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.251 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.238 adjusted 0.250, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 3.St. Louis Cardinals · home +1.5

    75%

    MLB · San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:15 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 4.Ben Rice · hits 1+

    71%

    MLB · New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins · Sep 16 (Wed) · 10:40 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.262 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.266· BvP 4/8 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 5.Milwaukee Brewers · away +1.5

    71%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Sep 16 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High

    probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 6.Bryce Harper · hits 1+

    69%

    MLB · Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals · Sep 16 (Wed) · 3:45 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.270 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.275 adjusted 0.247, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (Max Muncy · hits 1+, 75%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-15 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed17.2%

  • 1.Yandy Díaz · hits 1+

    81%

    MLB · Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays · Sep 15 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.301 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.285 adjusted 0.296, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -9pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 2.Mookie Betts · hits 1+

    75%

    MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · Sep 15 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.275 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 3.Alec Bohm · hits 1+

    74%

    MLB · Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals · Sep 15 (Tue) · 3:45 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.262 adjusted 0.284, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 4.St. Louis Cardinals · home +1.5

    75%

    MLB · San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · Sep 15 (Tue) · 4:45 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Ben Rice · hits 1+

    72%

    MLB · New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins · Sep 15 (Tue) · 4:40 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.263 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.285, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 6.Milwaukee Brewers · away +1.5

    71%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Sep 15 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT · High

    probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.2 vs 4.5 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 1 (Yandy Díaz · hits 1+, 81%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied
  • Leg 2 (Mookie Betts · hits 1+, 75%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-14 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed15.3%

  • 1.Jackson Merrill · hits 1+

    76%

    MLB · San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies · Sep 14 (Mon) · 5:40 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.248 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.267 adjusted 0.261, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 2.Mookie Betts · hits 1+

    74%

    MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds · Sep 14 (Mon) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.250 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.276 adjusted 0.267, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 3.Ben Rice · hits 1+

    73%

    MLB · New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins · Sep 14 (Mon) · 4:40 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.260 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.265 adjusted 0.283, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 4.St. Louis Cardinals · home +1.5

    74%

    MLB · San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals · Sep 14 (Mon) · 4:45 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Jo Adell · hits 1+

    71%

    MLB · Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels · Sep 14 (Mon) · 6:38 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.239 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.256 adjusted 0.301, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 6.Arizona Diamondbacks · home +1.5

    71%

    MLB · Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks · Sep 14 (Mon) · 6:40 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (Mookie Betts · hits 1+, 74%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied
  • Leg 5 (Jo Adell · hits 1+, 71%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-13 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Not yet graded19.2%

  • 1.Milwaukee Brewers · home +1.5

    80%

    MLB · Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers · Sep 13 (Sun) · 11:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 5.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 2.Detroit Tigers · home +1.5

    75%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers · Sep 13 (Sun) · 9:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.2 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied · Live game · verifiable in real time

  • 3.New York Yankees · home +1.5

    76%

    MLB · New York Mets @ New York Yankees · Sep 13 (Sun) · 10:35 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 4.Boston Red Sox · home +1.5

    76%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox · Sep 13 (Sun) · 12:05 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 5.Washington Nationals · home +1.5

    75%

    MLB · Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals · Sep 13 (Sun) · 10:35 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.9 vs 4.7 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 6.Tampa Bay Rays · home +1.5

    74%

    MLB · Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays · Sep 13 (Sun) · 10:40 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

2026-09-12 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed21.3%

  • 1.Milwaukee Brewers · home +1.5

    79%

    MLB · Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers · Sep 12 (Sat) · 4:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 5.0 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 2.Dillon Dingler · hits 1+

    75%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers · Sep 12 (Sat) · 10:10 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.246 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.261 adjusted 0.250, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,501 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 3.New York Yankees · home +1.5

    76%

    MLB · New York Mets @ New York Yankees · Sep 12 (Sat) · 10:35 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 4.Boston Red Sox · home +1.5

    76%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox · Sep 12 (Sat) · 1:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Washington Nationals · home +1.5

    75%

    MLB · Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals · Sep 12 (Sat) · 1:05 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.6 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 6.Anyang · 1+ goals

    83%

    K League 1 · Anyang @ Gwangju · Sep 13 (Sun) · 3:00 PDT · Medium· correct

    team expected goals 1.79 — chance of scoring at least 1 goal

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · team stat market volatility applied ×0.90 · adjusted factors 3 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (Dillon Dingler · hits 1+, 75%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-10 · 5 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Not yet graded17.8%

  • 1.New York Yankees · home +1.5

    81%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees · Sep 10 (Thu) · 4:05 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 2.Philadelphia Phillies · home +1.5

    71%

    MLB · Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies · Sep 10 (Thu) · 10:05 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.3 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 3.Atlanta Braves · home +1.5

    68%

    MLB · Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves · Sep 10 (Thu) · 9:15 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 4.Chicago White Sox · home +1.5

    68%

    MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox · Sep 10 (Thu) · 4:40 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.3 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Texas Rangers · away +1.5

    67%

    MLB · Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners · Sep 10 (Thu) · 1:10 PDT · High

    probability home does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.4 vs 3.6 — the Skellam conditional share of home wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

2026-09-09 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed16.7%

  • 1.Boston Red Sox · home +1.5

    81%

    MLB · Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox · Sep 9 (Wed) · 3:45 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.6 vs 4.1 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 2.New York Yankees · home +1.5

    81%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees · Sep 9 (Wed) · 4:05 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.0 vs 4.3 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 3.Jac Caglianone · hits 1+

    73%

    MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals · Sep 9 (Wed) · 4:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.281 adjusted 0.298, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,583 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 4.Doosan · Home Win

    70%

    KBO · Kiwoom @ Doosan · Sep 10 (Thu) · 2:30 PDT · High· correct

    home 62-59 (win% 0.512) vs away 45-80 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 1,932 past events)· win/loss normalized to 100%

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Luis Arraez · hits 1+

    70%

    MLB · St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants · Sep 9 (Wed) · 12:45 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.324 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288 adjusted 0.290, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,583 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 6.Philadelphia Phillies · home +1.5

    71%

    MLB · Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies · Sep 9 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 4.1 vs 3.9 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 3 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 3 (Jac Caglianone · hits 1+, 73%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied
  • Leg 5 (Luis Arraez · hits 1+, 70%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-07 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed17.9%

  • 1.Boston Red Sox · home +1.5

    81%

    MLB · Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox · Sep 7 (Mon) · 10:35 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.7 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 4 applied

  • 2.LG · Home Win

    75%

    KBO · Kiwoom @ LG · Sep 8 (Tue) · 2:30 PDT · High· missed

    home 68-53 (win% 0.562) vs away 44-80 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 2,034 past events)· cap applied· win/loss normalized to 100%

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 3.KT · Home Win

    72%

    KBO · SSG @ KT · Sep 8 (Tue) · 2:30 PDT · High· correct

    home 69-46 (win% 0.600) vs away 52-67 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +4pp (meta-model over 2,034 past events)· cap applied· win/loss normalized to 100%

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 4.Los Angeles Dodgers · home +1.5

    77%

    MLB · Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Sep 7 (Mon) · 6:10 PDT · High

    probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.8 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · runslines market volatility applied ×0.93 · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Rafael Devers · hits 1+

    74%

    MLB · St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants · Sep 7 (Mon) · 5:10 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.258 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.237 adjusted 0.319, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,359 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 6.Kazuma Okamoto · hits 1+

    72%

    MLB · Toronto Blue Jays @ Athletics · Sep 7 (Mon) · 7:05 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.231 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.219 adjusted 0.245, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,359 past events)· cap applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (LG · Home Win, 75%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-09-01 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed28.3%

  • 1.Jake Burger · hits 1+

    87%

    MLB · Athletics @ Texas Rangers · Sep 1 (Tue) · 5:05 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.238 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.233 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -7pp (meta-model over 4,472 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 2.New York Yankees · Away Win

    80%

    MLB · New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels · Sep 1 (Tue) · 6:38 PDT · High

    season win% 0.565 (away 78-60) vs home 53-85 0.384, matchup combination after the away discount· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 58.7% × simulation 71.3% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +14pp (meta-model over 2,300 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample)

  • 3.Detroit Tigers · Away Win

    88%

    MLB · Detroit Tigers @ Minnesota Twins · Sep 1 (Tue) · 4:40 PDT · Medium· missed

    season win% 0.460 (away 63-74) vs home 66-72 0.478, matchup combination after the away discount· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 48.7% × simulation 68.8% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +26pp (meta-model over 2,300 past events)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty

  • 4.KT · Home Win

    79%

    KBO · Hanwha @ KT · Sep 2 (Wed) · 2:30 PDT · High· correct

    home 67-43 (win% 0.609) vs away 49-63 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +9pp (meta-model over 2,300 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Samsung · Home Win

    79%

    KBO · Lotte @ Samsung · Sep 2 (Wed) · 2:30 PDT · High· correct

    home 69-44 (win% 0.611) vs away 50-62 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +9pp (meta-model over 2,300 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 6.Michael Harris II · hits 1+

    74%

    MLB · Atlanta Braves @ Washington Nationals · Sep 1 (Tue) · 3:45 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.297 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288· BvP 7/24 adjusted 0.320, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 4,472 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 1 (Jake Burger · hits 1+, 87%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied
  • Leg 3 (Detroit Tigers · Away Win, 88%, Medium confidence) missed — confidence medium· 7% penalty

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-30 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed12.3%

  • 1.Pete Alonso · hits 1+

    82%

    MLB · Baltimore Orioles @ Athletics · Aug 30 (Sun) · 1:05 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.269 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.283 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 4,616 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 2.Atlanta Braves · Home Win

    76%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves · Aug 30 (Sun) · 10:35 PDT · High· correct

    season win% 0.596 (home 81-55) vs away 52-84 0.382, Home advantage +4%· injury home 7 / away 9, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 69.3% × simulation 78.4% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +11pp (meta-model over 2,254 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 3.Otto Lopez · hits 1+

    71%

    MLB · Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals · Aug 30 (Sun) · 9:15 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.306 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.283 adjusted 0.305, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 4,616 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 4.Cleveland Guardians · Home Win

    66%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Cleveland Guardians · Aug 30 (Sun) · 10:40 PDT · High· correct

    season win% 0.500 (home 68-68) vs away 62-75 0.453, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 13, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 52.5% × simulation 74.0% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +14pp (meta-model over 2,254 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Chicago Cubs · Home Win

    64%

    MLB · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs · Aug 30 (Sun) · 4:20 PDT · High· missed

    season win% 0.566 (home 77-59) vs away 64-72 0.471, Home advantage +4%· injury home 12 / away 7, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 67.2% × simulation 62.5% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +9pp (meta-model over 2,254 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 6.Miguel Vargas · hits 1+

    66%

    MLB · Chicago White Sox @ Minnesota Twins · Aug 30 (Sun) · 11:10 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.249 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.269 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -14pp (meta-model over 4,616 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 5 (Chicago Cubs · Home Win, 64%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-27 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed9.9%

  • 1.Luis García Jr. · hits 1+

    76%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Aug 27 (Thu) · 10:05 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.287 adjusted 0.306, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -10pp (meta-model over 5,258 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 2.Doosan · Home Win

    70%

    KBO · Kiwoom @ Doosan · Aug 28 (Fri) · 11:30 PDT · High

    home 59-52 (win% 0.532) vs away 42-74 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 3.Milwaukee Brewers · Away Win

    70%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ New York Mets · Aug 27 (Thu) · 4:10 PDT · High· correct

    season win% 0.617 (away 82-51) vs home 60-73 0.451, matchup combination after the away discount· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 54.4% × simulation 77.7% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)

    confidence high (sufficient sample)

  • 4.KIA · Home Win

    66%

    KBO · SSG @ KIA · Aug 28 (Fri) · 11:30 PDT · High

    home 62-50 (win% 0.554) vs away 48-64 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Rafael Devers · hits 1+

    64%

    MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants · Aug 27 (Thu) · 6:45 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.246 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.231 adjusted 0.263, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -14pp (meta-model over 5,258 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 6.Jac Caglianone · hits 1+

    63%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Aug 27 (Thu) · 4:07 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.274 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.278 adjusted 0.313, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -14pp (meta-model over 5,258 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 1 (Luis García Jr. · hits 1+, 76%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-26 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed11.4%

  • 1.Luis García Jr. · hits 1+

    79%

    MLB · Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals · Aug 26 (Wed) · 3:45 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.288 adjusted 0.297, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -9pp (meta-model over 5,268 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 2.Ernie Clement · hits 1+

    73%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Toronto Blue Jays · Aug 26 (Wed) · 4:07 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.283 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.252 adjusted 0.281, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 5,268 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 3.Samsung · Away Win

    69%

    KBO · Samsung @ Kiwoom · Aug 27 (Thu) · 11:30 PDT · High· correct

    away 66-44 (win% 0.600) — away adjustment applied

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 4.Ceddanne Rafaela · hits 1+

    67%

    MLB · Boston Red Sox @ Miami Marlins · Aug 26 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.288 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.249 adjusted 0.276, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -13pp (meta-model over 5,268 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 5.Pete Alonso · hits 1+

    67%

    MLB · Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals · Aug 26 (Wed) · 4:45 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.276 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.287 adjusted 0.337, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -13pp (meta-model over 5,268 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 6.KIA · Home Win

    64%

    KBO · Lotte @ KIA · Aug 27 (Thu) · 11:30 PDT · High

    home 62-50 (win% 0.554) vs away 50-60 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 1 (Luis García Jr. · hits 1+, 79%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied
  • Leg 2 (Ernie Clement · hits 1+, 73%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied
  • Leg 4 (Ceddanne Rafaela · hits 1+, 67%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-19 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed9.7%

  • 1.Shohei Ohtani · hits 1+

    76%

    MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Aug 19 (Wed) · 5:40 PDT · High

    Season AVG 0.294 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.297· BvP 7/13 adjusted 0.309, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -9pp (meta-model over 5,809 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 2.Tampa Bay Rays · Home Win

    66%

    MLB · Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays · Aug 19 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High· correct

    season win% 0.600 (home 75-50) vs away 62-65 0.488, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 15, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 55.9% × simulation 67.3% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 3.Milwaukee Brewers · Home Win

    66%

    MLB · Seattle Mariners @ Milwaukee Brewers · Aug 19 (Wed) · 4:40 PDT · High· missed

    season win% 0.619 (home 78-48) vs away 59-67 0.468, Home advantage +4%· injury home 9 / away 9, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 68.4% × simulation 64.3% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 4.Houston Astros · Home Win

    66%

    MLB · Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros · Aug 19 (Wed) · 5:10 PDT · High· correct

    season win% 0.500 (home 63-63) vs away 50-76 0.397, Home advantage +4%· injury home 4 / away 8, matchup combination model

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Liam Hicks · hits 1+

    68%

    MLB · Miami Marlins @ Philadelphia Phillies · Aug 19 (Wed) · 3:05 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.282 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.252 adjusted 0.287, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 5,809 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 6.Cleveland Guardians · Home Win

    65%

    MLB · San Francisco Giants @ Cleveland Guardians · Aug 19 (Wed) · 3:40 PDT · High· missed

    season win% 0.484 (home 61-65) vs away 51-74 0.408, Home advantage +4%· injury home 3 / away 13, matchup combination model

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 3 (Milwaukee Brewers · Home Win, 66%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied
  • Leg 5 (Liam Hicks · hits 1+, 68%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied
  • Leg 6 (Cleveland Guardians · Home Win, 65%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-18 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed17.8%

  • 1.Carlos Rodón · K 5+

    80%

    MLB · New York Yankees @ Baltimore Orioles · Aug 18 (Tue) · 3:35 PDT · Medium

    regressed K% 25.6% × opposing lineup K% 24.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 28.8%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 29.3%, expected batters faced 22 → expected strikeouts 6.4, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration +4pp (past 4,379 beta adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 2.Braxton Ashcraft · K 5+

    80%

    MLB · Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates · Aug 18 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT · Medium

    regressed K% 26.5% × opposing lineup K% 22.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 26.2% → matchup K% 27.9%, expected batters faced 25 → expected strikeouts 6.9, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration +4pp (past 4,379 beta adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 3.네일 (KIA) · K 4 or more

    79%

    KBO · KIA @ Hanwha · Aug 18 (Tue) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 7.4 → 8.4 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.8 IP· calibration +4pp (past 4,379 beta adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 4.Matt Olson · hits 1+

    71%

    MLB · Atlanta Braves @ Minnesota Twins · Aug 18 (Tue) · 4:40 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.264 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.250 adjusted 0.260, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 5,717 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 5.Boston Red Sox · Home Win

    72%

    MLB · Arizona Diamondbacks @ Boston Red Sox · Aug 18 (Tue) · 4:10 PDT · Medium· correct

    season win% 0.536 (home 67-58) vs away 66-60 0.524, Home advantage +4%· injury home 13 / away 12, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 59.3% × simulation 76.2% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 6.Jordan Walker · hits 1+

    69%

    MLB · St. Louis Cardinals @ Cincinnati Reds · Aug 18 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.289 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.277· BvP 0/15 adjusted 0.280, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 5,717 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 4 (Matt Olson · hits 1+, 71%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-17 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed29.5%

  • 1.라일리 (NC) · K 5 or more

    92%

    KBO · Doosan @ NC · Aug 18 (Tue) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 12.1 → 13.3 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.8 IP· calibration +4pp (past 4,529 beta adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied · 90% or more band is capped at the top due to thin information

  • 2.Jac Caglianone · hits 1+

    86%

    MLB · Athletics @ Kansas City Royals · Aug 17 (Mon) · 4:40 PDT · High

    Season AVG 0.272 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.280 adjusted 0.306, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -7pp (meta-model over 5,915 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

  • 3.비슬리 (Lotte) · K 4 or more

    91%

    KBO · Kiwoom @ Lotte · Aug 18 (Tue) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 9.8 → 11.3 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.4 IP· calibration +5pp (past 4,529 beta adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied · 90% or more band is capped at the top due to thin information

  • 4.네일 (KIA) · K 4 or more

    79%

    KBO · KIA @ Hanwha · Aug 18 (Tue) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 7.4 → 8.4 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.8 IP· calibration +4pp (past 4,529 beta adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Samsung · Home Win

    72%

    KBO · SSG @ Samsung · Aug 18 (Tue) · 12:00 PDT · High· missed

    home 62-41 (win% 0.602) vs away 43-62 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 6.Los Angeles Dodgers · Away Win

    72%

    MLB · Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado Rockies · Aug 17 (Mon) · 5:40 PDT · High

    season win% 0.592 (away 74-51) vs home 50-74 0.403, matchup combination after the away discount· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 56.6% × simulation 69.4% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)

    confidence high (sufficient sample)

Legs that missed

  • Leg 5 (Samsung · Home Win, 72%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-16 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed26%

  • 1.Dylan Cease · K 5+

    92%

    MLB · New York Yankees @ Toronto Blue Jays · Aug 16 (Sun) · 10:37 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 34.5% × opposing lineup K% 24.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 34.9%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 41.4%, expected batters faced 26 → expected strikeouts 10.8, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied · 90% or more band is capped at the top due to thin information

  • 2.Eury Pérez · K 5+

    84%

    MLB · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Aug 16 (Sun) · 10:40 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 26.5% × opposing lineup K% 25.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 28.5%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 31.4%, expected batters faced 25 → expected strikeouts 7.8, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -1pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 3.Tarik Skubal · K 5+

    80%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Aug 16 (Sun) · 1:10 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 29.4% × opposing lineup K% 22.1% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 32.2%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 30.5%, expected batters faced 25 → expected strikeouts 7.7, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 4.Noah Cameron · K 5+

    79%

    MLB · Kansas City Royals @ Los Angeles Angels · Aug 16 (Sun) · 1:07 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 21.5% × opposing lineup K% 25.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 25.9%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 26.1%, expected batters faced 27 → expected strikeouts 7.0, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 5.Sean Burke · K 5+

    75%

    MLB · Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers · Aug 16 (Sun) · 10:40 PDT · Medium· missed

    regressed K% 27.0% × opposing lineup K% 23.1% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 26.2%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 29.3%, expected batters faced 25 → expected strikeouts 7.4, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 6.Junior Caminero · hits 1+

    71%

    MLB · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Aug 16 (Sun) · 9:15 PDT · High· missed

    Season AVG 0.275 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.273 adjusted 0.271, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -11pp (meta-model over 5,929 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 5 (Sean Burke · K 5+, 75%, Medium confidence) missed — confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied
  • Leg 6 (Junior Caminero · hits 1+, 71%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-15 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed39.9%

  • 1.KT · Home Win

    84%

    KBO · Kiwoom @ KT · Aug 16 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT · High· correct

    home 61-39 (win% 0.610) vs away 40-67 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +9pp (meta-model over 1,776 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 2.곽빈 (Doosan) · K 4 or more

    92%

    KBO · Doosan @ KIA · Aug 16 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 11.0 → 12.4 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.8 IP

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied · 90% or more band is capped at the top due to thin information

  • 3.Jesús Luzardo · K 5+

    92%

    MLB · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · Aug 15 (Sat) · 4:10 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 28.9% × opposing lineup K% 21.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 31.8%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 31.6%, expected batters faced 27 → expected strikeouts 8.5, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 9 applied · 90% or more band is capped at the top due to thin information

  • 4.라일리 (NC) · K 5 or more

    88%

    KBO · NC @ Lotte · Aug 16 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 12.1 → 13.3 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.8 IP· calibration -1pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Jacob Misiorowski · K 5+

    84%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Aug 15 (Sat) · 4:15 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 38.3% × opposing lineup K% 21.0% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 38.3% → matchup K% 39.2%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 9.5, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 6.LG · Home Win

    76%

    KBO · SSG @ LG · Aug 16 (Sun) · 12:00 PDT · High· missed

    home 58-47 (win% 0.552) vs away 42-62 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +8pp (meta-model over 1,776 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 6 (LG · Home Win, 76%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-14 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed9.2%

  • 1.Gavin Williams · K 5+

    82%

    MLB · San Diego Padres @ Cleveland Guardians · Aug 14 (Fri) · 4:10 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 31.2% × opposing lineup K% 22.3% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 31.2% → matchup K% 33.2%, expected batters faced 25 → expected strikeouts 8.4, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -1pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 9 applied

  • 2.Sandy Alcantara · K 5+

    74%

    MLB · Miami Marlins @ Cincinnati Reds · Aug 14 (Fri) · 3:10 PDT · Medium· missed

    regressed K% 19.3% × opposing lineup K% 25.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 22.0%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 22.5%, expected batters faced 27 → expected strikeouts 6.1, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 3.Tampa Bay Rays · Home Win

    67%

    MLB · Baltimore Orioles @ Tampa Bay Rays · Aug 14 (Fri) · 4:10 PDT · High· missed

    season win% 0.617 (home 74-46) vs away 58-63 0.479, Home advantage +4%· injury home 10 / away 9, matchup combination model· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 1,794 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 4.Houston Astros · Home Win

    59%

    MLB · Seattle Mariners @ Houston Astros · Aug 14 (Fri) · 5:10 PDT · High· missed

    season win% 0.508 (home 62-60) vs away 57-65 0.467, Home advantage +4%· injury home 4 / away 8, matchup combination model· strength index+simulation adjusted (strength index 63.0% × simulation 61.3% blend 3.0:7.0, RD 45)· stacking +5pp (meta-model over 1,794 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 5.Nico Hoerner · hits 1+

    64%

    MLB · St. Louis Cardinals @ Chicago Cubs · Aug 14 (Fri) · 11:20 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.262 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.298· BvP 5/14 adjusted 0.317, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -12pp (meta-model over 5,957 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 7 applied

  • 6.Shohei Ohtani · hits 1+

    60%

    MLB · Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Dodgers · Aug 14 (Fri) · 7:10 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.292 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.296 adjusted 0.315, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -13pp (meta-model over 5,957 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 5 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (Sandy Alcantara · K 5+, 74%, Medium confidence) missed — confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied
  • Leg 3 (Tampa Bay Rays · Home Win, 67%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied
  • Leg 4 (Houston Astros · Home Win, 59%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-13 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Missed14.7%

  • 1.KT · Home Win

    83%

    KBO · Kiwoom @ KT · Aug 14 (Fri) · 12:00 PDT · High· correct

    home 60-38 (win% 0.612) vs away 39-66 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 1,764 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 2.LG · Home Win

    75%

    KBO · SSG @ LG · Aug 14 (Fri) · 12:00 PDT · High· missed

    home 57-46 (win% 0.553) vs away 41-61 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +7pp (meta-model over 1,764 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 3.Samsung · Home Win

    71%

    KBO · Hanwha @ Samsung · Aug 14 (Fri) · 12:00 PDT · High· correct

    home 60-41 (win% 0.594) vs away 48-51 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking +6pp (meta-model over 1,764 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied

  • 4.김진욱 (Lotte) · K 4 or more

    72%

    KBO · NC @ Lotte · Aug 14 (Fri) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 7.7 → 8.6 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.7 IP· calibration -4pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 5.Byron Buxton · hits 1+

    66%

    MLB · Philadelphia Phillies @ Minnesota Twins · Aug 13 (Thu) · 4:30 PDT · High· correct

    Season AVG 0.261 → form·L/Rplatoon· Statcast xBA 0.251 adjusted 0.242, probability of 1+ hits in 4 PA (binomial)· simulation· stacking -12pp (meta-model over 5,873 past events)

    confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 6 applied · Live game · verifiable in real time

  • 6.Jacob deGrom · K 5+

    70%

    MLB · Texas Rangers @ Los Angeles Angels · Aug 13 (Thu) · 7:07 PDT · Medium· missed

    regressed K% 28.7% × opposing lineup K% 25.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 33.3%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 34.5%, expected batters faced 19 → expected strikeouts 6.7, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -4pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 10 applied

Legs that missed

  • Leg 2 (LG · Home Win, 75%, High confidence) missed — confidence high (sufficient sample) · adjusted factors 2 applied
  • Leg 6 (Jacob deGrom · K 5+, 70%, Medium confidence) missed — confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 10 applied

This combo's legs were correlation-safe (different games) and picked the same way every day. A single result does not change the criteria. Tonight's full recalibration (see /learning) informs tomorrow's board the same way it always does.

2026-08-11 · 6 legs

Joint probability = product of each leg

Not yet graded37.6%

  • 1.Eury Pérez · K 5+

    89%

    MLB · Pittsburgh Pirates @ Miami Marlins · Aug 11 (Tue) · 3:40 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 26.4% × opposing lineup K% 24.7% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 28.4%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 31.5%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 7.5, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 8 applied

  • 2.Sean Burke · K 5+

    88%

    MLB · Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago White Sox · Aug 11 (Tue) · 4:40 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 26.8% × opposing lineup K% 25.8% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 25.6% → matchup K% 31.3%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 7.6, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 9 applied

  • 3.Dylan Cease · K 7+

    87%

    MLB · Boston Red Sox @ Toronto Blue Jays · Aug 11 (Tue) · 4:07 PDT · Medium· correct

    expected strikeouts 10.3 → tail-aware count model 7 + probability (matchup K% 38.0%, opposing batter 27)· simulation· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 9 applied

  • 4.Cristopher Sánchez · K 5+

    83%

    MLB · Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals · Aug 11 (Tue) · 4:45 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 27.2% × opposing lineup K% 20.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 32.8%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 28.8%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 6.9, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -3pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 10 applied

  • 5.벤자민 (Doosan) · K 4 or more

    82%

    KBO · Hanwha @ Doosan · Aug 12 (Wed) · 12:00 PDT · Medium

    K per 9 IP 9.0 → 10.1 after adjusting for the opposing lineup's K tendency, scoring distribution over a projected 5.7 IP· calibration -2pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 3 applied

  • 6.Bryan Woo · K 5+

    81%

    MLB · Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees · Aug 11 (Tue) · 4:05 PDT · Medium· correct

    regressed K% 24.0% × opposing lineup K% 24.9% (matchup scale blend)· Statcast whiff% 25.1%· opponent career K/9 0.0 → matchup K% 27.7%, expected batters faced 24 → expected strikeouts 6.5, tail-aware count model P(≥5)· simulation· calibration -4pp (past 3,121 calibration adjusted)

    confidence medium· 7% penalty · adjusted factors 9 applied