NO ODDS • NO WAGERS • STATISTICAL ANALYSIS — informational estimates only. Not a sportsbook. 18+.
Model calibration
Log each estimate you make, then grade it once the game finishes. Calibration matters more than hit rate: a well-calibrated 70% estimate should hit about 70 times out of 100.
← Back to calculatorBrier score
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Lower is better. 0.25 = coin flip.
Hit rate
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Share of graded calls on the right side.
Graded
0 / 0
Entries with a recorded outcome.
Reliability curve
Predicted probability vs observed frequency. Perfect calibration sits on the diagonal.
No graded entries yet.
Log an estimate
| Date | Estimate | P | Outcome | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nothing logged yet. | ||||
NO ODDS • NO WAGERS • STATISTICAL ANALYSIS — informational estimates only. Not a sportsbook. 18+.