SPOLYTICS / MATCHDAY

Football, explained.

Find your match. Explore the probabilities and the reasoning behind them.

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EPL forecast vs resultProbabilities frozen 5 to 1 days before kickoff, next to what actually happened. Each row is the model value at that moment and is never overwritten by later updates.

20 matches

5d out 50% (10/20) · Brier 0.640 · 4d out 50% (10/20) · Brier 0.641 · 3d out 50% (10/20) · Brier 0.641 · 2d out 50% (10/20) · Brier 0.641 · 1d out 50% (10/20) · Brier 0.641

Match	Lead time	Home	Draw	Away	Pick	Result	Verdict
Fulham vs Manchester United2026-09-20	5d	25%	32%	43%	Manchester United	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	4d	25%	32%	43%	Manchester United	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	3d	25%	32%	43%	Manchester United	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	2d	25%	32%	43%	Manchester United	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	1d	25%	32%	43%	Manchester United	1-1 · Draw	Miss
Leeds United vs Crystal Palace2026-09-20	5d	50%	31%	19%	Leeds United	0-1 · Crystal Palace	Miss
	4d	50%	31%	19%	Leeds United	0-1 · Crystal Palace	Miss
	3d	50%	31%	19%	Leeds United	0-1 · Crystal Palace	Miss
	2d	50%	31%	19%	Leeds United	0-1 · Crystal Palace	Miss
	1d	50%	31%	19%	Leeds United	0-1 · Crystal Palace	Miss
AFC Bournemouth vs Liverpool2026-09-20	5d	44%	31%	26%	AFC Bournemouth	0-1 · Liverpool	Miss
	4d	44%	31%	26%	AFC Bournemouth	0-1 · Liverpool	Miss
	3d	44%	31%	26%	AFC Bournemouth	0-1 · Liverpool	Miss
	2d	44%	31%	26%	AFC Bournemouth	0-1 · Liverpool	Miss
	1d	44%	31%	26%	AFC Bournemouth	0-1 · Liverpool	Miss
Manchester City vs Sunderland2026-09-20	5d	63%	25%	12%	Manchester City	5-3 · Manchester City	Hit
	4d	63%	25%	12%	Manchester City	5-3 · Manchester City	Hit
	3d	63%	25%	12%	Manchester City	5-3 · Manchester City	Hit
	2d	63%	25%	12%	Manchester City	5-3 · Manchester City	Hit
	1d	63%	25%	12%	Manchester City	5-3 · Manchester City	Hit
Nottingham Forest vs Coventry City2026-09-19	5d	75%	19%	6%	Nottingham Forest	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	4d	75%	19%	6%	Nottingham Forest	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	3d	75%	19%	6%	Nottingham Forest	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	2d	75%	19%	6%	Nottingham Forest	1-1 · Draw	Miss
	1d	75%	19%	6%	Nottingham Forest	1-1 · Draw	Miss
Newcastle United vs Hull City2026-09-19	5d	37%	33%	30%	Newcastle United	2-1 · Newcastle United	Hit
	4d	37%	33%	30%	Newcastle United	2-1 · Newcastle United	Hit
	3d	37%	33%	30%	Newcastle United	2-1 · Newcastle United	Hit
	2d	37%	33%	30%	Newcastle United	2-1 · Newcastle United	Hit
	1d	37%	33%	30%	Newcastle United	2-1 · Newcastle United	Hit
Brighton & Hove Albion vs Arsenal2026-09-19	5d	31%	33%	37%	Arsenal	3-0 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Miss
	4d	31%	33%	37%	Arsenal	3-0 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Miss
	3d	31%	33%	37%	Arsenal	3-0 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Miss
	2d	31%	33%	37%	Arsenal	3-0 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Miss
	1d	31%	33%	37%	Arsenal	3-0 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Miss
Everton vs Ipswich Town2026-09-19	5d	50%	25%	25%	Everton	1-0 · Everton	Hit
	4d	50%	25%	25%	Everton	1-0 · Everton	Hit
	3d	50%	25%	25%	Everton	1-0 · Everton	Hit
	2d	50%	25%	25%	Everton	1-0 · Everton	Hit
	1d	50%	25%	25%	Everton	1-0 · Everton	Hit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Aston Villa2026-09-19	5d	31%	31%	38%	Aston Villa	2-3 · Aston Villa	Hit
	4d	31%	31%	38%	Aston Villa	2-3 · Aston Villa	Hit
	3d	31%	31%	38%	Aston Villa	2-3 · Aston Villa	Hit
	2d	31%	31%	38%	Aston Villa	2-3 · Aston Villa	Hit
	1d	31%	31%	38%	Aston Villa	2-3 · Aston Villa	Hit
Brentford vs Chelsea2026-09-18	5d	51%	27%	22%	Brentford	3-0 · Brentford	Hit
	4d	50%	26%	24%	Brentford	3-0 · Brentford	Hit
	3d	50%	26%	24%	Brentford	3-0 · Brentford	Hit
	2d	50%	26%	24%	Brentford	3-0 · Brentford	Hit
	1d	50%	26%	24%	Brentford	3-0 · Brentford	Hit
Leeds United vs Newcastle United2026-09-14	5d	41%	33%	27%	Leeds United	4-1 · Leeds United	Hit
	4d	41%	33%	27%	Leeds United	4-1 · Leeds United	Hit
	3d	41%	33%	27%	Leeds United	4-1 · Leeds United	Hit
	2d	41%	33%	27%	Leeds United	4-1 · Leeds United	Hit
	1d	41%	33%	27%	Leeds United	4-1 · Leeds United	Hit
Manchester United vs Manchester City2026-09-13	5d	32%	29%	39%	Manchester City	0-1 · Manchester City	Hit
	4d	32%	29%	39%	Manchester City	0-1 · Manchester City	Hit
	3d	32%	29%	39%	Manchester City	0-1 · Manchester City	Hit
	2d	32%	29%	39%	Manchester City	0-1 · Manchester City	Hit
	1d	32%	29%	39%	Manchester City	0-1 · Manchester City	Hit
Coventry City vs Brighton & Hove Albion2026-09-13	5d	18%	32%	50%	Brighton & Hove Albion	0-5 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Hit
	4d	18%	32%	50%	Brighton & Hove Albion	0-5 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Hit
	3d	18%	32%	50%	Brighton & Hove Albion	0-5 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Hit
	2d	18%	32%	50%	Brighton & Hove Albion	0-5 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Hit
	1d	18%	32%	50%	Brighton & Hove Albion	0-5 · Brighton & Hove Albion	Hit
Sunderland vs Arsenal2026-09-12	5d	20%	32%	48%	Arsenal	0-2 · Arsenal	Hit
	4d	20%	32%	48%	Arsenal	0-2 · Arsenal	Hit
	3d	20%	32%	48%	Arsenal	0-2 · Arsenal	Hit
	2d	20%	32%	48%	Arsenal	0-2 · Arsenal	Hit
	1d	20%	32%	48%	Arsenal	0-2 · Arsenal	Hit
Tottenham Hotspur vs Everton2026-09-12	5d	25%	30%	44%	Everton	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	4d	25%	30%	44%	Everton	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	3d	25%	30%	44%	Everton	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	2d	25%	30%	44%	Everton	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	1d	25%	30%	44%	Everton	0-0 · Draw	Miss
Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest2026-09-12	5d	27%	30%	43%	Nottingham Forest	1-2 · Nottingham Forest	Hit
	4d	27%	30%	43%	Nottingham Forest	1-2 · Nottingham Forest	Hit
	3d	27%	30%	43%	Nottingham Forest	1-2 · Nottingham Forest	Hit
	2d	27%	30%	43%	Nottingham Forest	1-2 · Nottingham Forest	Hit
	1d	27%	30%	43%	Nottingham Forest	1-2 · Nottingham Forest	Hit
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich Town2026-09-12	5d	46%	26%	28%	Crystal Palace	2-3 · Ipswich Town	Miss
	4d	46%	26%	28%	Crystal Palace	2-3 · Ipswich Town	Miss
	3d	46%	26%	28%	Crystal Palace	2-3 · Ipswich Town	Miss
	2d	46%	26%	28%	Crystal Palace	2-3 · Ipswich Town	Miss
	1d	46%	26%	28%	Crystal Palace	2-3 · Ipswich Town	Miss
AFC Bournemouth vs Brentford2026-09-12	5d	48%	31%	20%	AFC Bournemouth	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	4d	48%	31%	20%	AFC Bournemouth	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	3d	48%	31%	20%	AFC Bournemouth	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	2d	48%	31%	20%	AFC Bournemouth	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	1d	48%	31%	20%	AFC Bournemouth	2-2 · Draw	Miss
Liverpool vs Fulham2026-09-12	5d	54%	28%	18%	Liverpool	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	4d	54%	28%	18%	Liverpool	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	3d	54%	28%	18%	Liverpool	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	2d	54%	28%	18%	Liverpool	0-0 · Draw	Miss
	1d	54%	28%	18%	Liverpool	0-0 · Draw	Miss
Chelsea vs Hull City2026-09-12	5d	33%	32%	36%	Hull City	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	4d	33%	32%	36%	Hull City	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	3d	33%	32%	36%	Hull City	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	2d	33%	32%	36%	Hull City	2-2 · Draw	Miss
	1d	33%	32%	36%	Hull City	2-2 · Draw	Miss

Statistical estimates only. No odds, lines or sportsbook information.