Back to board
2026-W33 · Aug 10 – Aug 16, 2026
Weekly accuracy report
Every one of the 342 games that finished this week was re-graded, scoring the 11362 probabilities that had been published against actual outcomes. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is coin-flip level.
Brier (model)
0.1955
raw 0.2026
Calibration gain
−0.0071
lower is better
Hit rate
70.4%
base 33.1%
Calibration error
3.5%
raw 8.0%
Brier by day (lower is better)
By league
| League | Games | Scored | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 103 | 9141 | 0.1906/ 0.1985 |
| 클럽 친선 | 118 | 1534 | 0.2187/ 0.2178 |
| LoL | 86 | 344 | 0.2304/ 0.2595 |
| 리그스컵 | 18 | 234 | 0.1870/ 0.1830 |
| WNBA | 14 | 70 | 0.1827/ 0.1910 |
| J리그 | 2 | 26 | 0.1755/ 0.1755 |
| 챔피언십 | 1 | 13 | 0.2244/ 0.2285 |
What changed this week
- • Graded 1972 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1960 (raw 0.2050; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1545 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1941 (raw 0.2032; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1077 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1882 (raw 0.1958; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 3431 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1995 (raw 0.2062; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1477 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1914 (raw 0.1990; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 493 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2132 (raw 0.2092; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1367 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1900 (raw 0.1960; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • soccer:ml calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.2184 vs 0.2113, 46 samples). Pulled and quarantined.