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2026-W34 · Aug 17 – Aug 23, 2026
Weekly accuracy report
Every one of the 316 games that finished this week was re-graded, scoring the 7591 probabilities that had been published against actual outcomes. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is coin-flip level.
Brier (model)
0.1942
raw 0.2055
Calibration gain
−0.0113
lower is better
Hit rate
70.4%
base 32.9%
Calibration error
4.4%
raw 9.1%
Brier by day (lower is better)
By league
| League | Games | Scored | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 71 | 5826 | 0.1866/ 0.1982 |
| 클럽 친선 | 77 | 1001 | 0.2218/ 0.2225 |
| LoL | 118 | 472 | 0.2224/ 0.2581 |
| MLS | 14 | 182 | 0.1924/ 0.1927 |
| WNBA | 19 | 95 | 0.2267/ 0.2340 |
| KBO | 3 | 15 | 0.2565/ 0.2491 |
What changed this week
- • Graded 901 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2081 (raw 0.2121; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1156 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1879 (raw 0.1975; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 925 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1830 (raw 0.1976; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1687 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1989 (raw 0.2115; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1301 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1867 (raw 0.2027; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 233 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1881 (raw 0.2140; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1388 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2004 (raw 0.2074; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • league:mlb:batter_power calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.1716 vs 0.1668, 90 samples). Pulled and quarantined.