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2026-W35 · Aug 24 – Aug 30, 2026
Weekly accuracy report
Every one of the 209 games that finished this week was re-graded, scoring the 5299 probabilities that had been published against actual outcomes. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is coin-flip level.
Brier (model)
0.2026
raw 0.2105
Calibration gain
−0.0079
lower is better
Hit rate
68.9%
base 33.7%
Calibration error
4.9%
raw 9.4%
Brier by day (lower is better)
By league
| League | Games | Scored | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 65 | 4232 | 0.1962/ 0.2038 |
| 클럽 친선 | 39 | 507 | 0.2383/ 0.2423 |
| LoL | 42 | 168 | 0.2150/ 0.2474 |
| WNBA | 19 | 95 | 0.2130/ 0.2140 |
| MLS | 7 | 91 | 0.2077/ 0.2094 |
| CS2 | 24 | 84 | 0.2186/ 0.2294 |
| 리그스컵 | 6 | 78 | 0.2248/ 0.2309 |
| 라리가 | 2 | 26 | 0.2817/ 0.2979 |
| NFL | 3 | 18 | 0.2303/ 0.2359 |
What changed this week
- • Graded 902 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2193 (raw 0.2271; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 226 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2364 (raw 0.2267; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 649 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1894 (raw 0.2013; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1249 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2025 (raw 0.2083; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1349 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1962 (raw 0.2062; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 850 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1992 (raw 0.2039; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 74 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1701 (raw 0.2356; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • league:cs2:ml calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.2072 vs 0.2044, 48 samples). Pulled and quarantined.