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2026-W36 · Aug 31 – Sep 6, 2026
Weekly accuracy report
Every one of the 259 games that finished this week was re-graded, scoring the 7533 probabilities that had been published against actual outcomes. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is coin-flip level.
Brier (model)
0.2053
raw 0.2083
Calibration gain
−0.0030
lower is better
Hit rate
68.0%
base 34.2%
Calibration error
4.6%
raw 7.7%
Brier by day (lower is better)
By league
| League | Games | Scored | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 84 | 6409 | 0.2005/ 0.2054 |
| CS2 | 104 | 404 | 0.2617/ 0.2411 |
| MLS | 9 | 117 | 0.2183/ 0.2055 |
| 분데스리가 | 9 | 117 | 0.2264/ 0.2229 |
| 클럽 친선 | 9 | 117 | 0.2187/ 0.2205 |
| 라리가 | 8 | 104 | 0.2446/ 0.2450 |
| LoL | 19 | 76 | 0.2123/ 0.2326 |
| 세리에 A | 4 | 52 | 0.2247/ 0.2105 |
| 리그스컵 | 4 | 52 | 0.1793/ 0.1801 |
| 리그 1 | 3 | 39 | 0.1885/ 0.1880 |
| EPL | 2 | 26 | 0.1739/ 0.1996 |
| WNBA | 4 | 20 | 0.1974/ 0.1961 |
What changed this week
- • Graded 1648 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2099 (raw 0.2108; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 939 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2012 (raw 0.2051; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 799 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1898 (raw 0.2017; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1384 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2077 (raw 0.2084; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1331 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2176 (raw 0.2147; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1419 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1980 (raw 0.2055; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • *:soccer_goals calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.2279 vs 0.2145, 230 samples). Pulled and quarantined.
- • *:batter_power calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.1673 vs 0.1670, 326 samples). Pulled and quarantined.