Back to board
2026-W37 · Sep 7 – Sep 13, 2026
Weekly accuracy report
Every one of the 211 games that finished this week was re-graded, scoring the 5798 probabilities that had been published against actual outcomes. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is coin-flip level.
Brier (model)
0.2019
raw 0.2066
Calibration gain
−0.0047
lower is better
Hit rate
69.4%
base 33.7%
Calibration error
4.2%
raw 7.4%
Brier by day (lower is better)
By league
| League | Games | Scored | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 61 | 5007 | 0.1989/ 0.2041 |
| CS2 | 120 | 464 | 0.2485/ 0.2495 |
| MLS | 9 | 117 | 0.1659/ 0.1659 |
| 세리에 A | 6 | 78 | 0.1776/ 0.1791 |
| 리그 1 | 3 | 39 | 0.1899/ 0.1877 |
| LoL | 7 | 28 | 0.2153/ 0.2211 |
| 리그스컵 | 2 | 26 | 0.2208/ 0.2234 |
| 분데스리가 | 2 | 26 | 0.1549/ 0.1562 |
| 클럽 친선 | 1 | 13 | 0.2287/ 0.2311 |
What changed this week
- • Graded 524 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1857 (raw 0.1990; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1444 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2102 (raw 0.2138; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1334 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2002 (raw 0.2078; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1038 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.2043 (raw 0.2051; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • Graded 1458 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1993 (raw 0.2020; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • league:mlb:batter_rbi_run calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.2470 vs 0.2409, 326 samples). Pulled and quarantined.
- • esports:ml calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.2417 vs 0.2304, 48 samples). Pulled and quarantined.
- • baseball:batter_bb calibration trailed raw output on live games (Brier 0.2135 vs 0.2065, 119 samples). Pulled and quarantined.