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2026-W39 · Sep 21 – Sep 27, 2026
Weekly accuracy report
Every one of the 15 games that finished this week was re-graded, scoring the 217 probabilities that had been published against actual outcomes. Lower Brier is better; 0.25 is coin-flip level.
Brier (model)
0.1949
raw 0.2025
Calibration gain
−0.0076
lower is better
Hit rate
71.0%
base 30.4%
Calibration error
4.3%
raw 8.6%
By league
| League | Games | Scored | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|
| MLB | 2 | 173 | 0.1819/ 0.1938 |
| CS2 | 13 | 44 | 0.2458/ 0.2368 |
What changed this week
- • Graded 217 markets from yesterday. Shipped probabilities scored Brier 0.1949 (raw 0.2025; a coin flip is 0.25).
- • MLB: learned calibration cut Brier by 0.0119 versus raw output (173 samples).
- • CS2: calibration trailed raw output by 0.0090; coefficients stay conservative until more samples land.