2026-10-08
Today's highest probabilities
A frozen record of what the model computed on this morning. The numbers do not change after the games finish. 4 highest outputs selected from 8 games across 3 leagues.
01 · NBA · Oct 8 (Thu) · 5:00 PDT
San Antonio Spurs Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Atlanta Hawks @ San Antonio Spurs
91.0%
season record 0-0 vs 0-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· absence adjustment (home 1 / away 1)· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
02 · NBA · Oct 8 (Thu) · 7:30 PDT
Los Angeles Lakers Home Win· Home Team · Win Probability
Sacramento Kings @ Los Angeles Lakers
91.0%
season record 1-1 vs 0-1 — matchup combination win% model plus home-field advantage· stacking -4pp (meta-model over 798 past events)· cap applied
03 · MLB · Oct 8 (Thu) · 5:00 PDT
Chicago White Sox home +1.5· Run Line
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox
87.0%
probability away does not win by 2+ — expected runs 3.8 vs 4.2 — the Skellam conditional share of away wins by 2+ runs, multiplied by the side win probability
04 · NFL · Oct 8 (Thu) · 5:15 PDT
Javonte Williams 터치다운 1x or more· Anytime TD
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Dallas Cowboys
79.0%
잠정value: 이번 season 출전 4games 6TD, 지난 season 2025 본인·동일 포지션 history(16games) 8games shrunk adjusted, expected 1.0TD. 출전은 가정한 value이다. (Provisional: 4 current-season appearances, 6 TD; prior-season 2025 player/position history (16 appearances), 8-game shrinkage; expected 1.0 TD. Participation assumed.) → per game expected 1.0TD basis scoring distribution P(1x or more)
All figures are probabilities computed from public statistics APIs. No odds, lines, or sportsbook information.